Bush must intervene in Gaza

No one should be surprised that Israel would react harshly when Palestinians shell its towns, and kidnap an Israeli soldier from within its pre-1967 borders. A Hamas government that tolerates -- or can't control -- such behavior is asking for drastic retaliation.
But let's hope the spiraling violence in Gaza will shake the White House out of its dangerous lethargy on the Palestinian issue. Israel and the Palestinians on their own can't keep the situation from deteriorating further.
Unless President Bush embarks on a major effort to get the sides back on a negotiating track, things will get worse. Israeli-Palestinian violence will escalate (watched by the Arab world on satellite TV). And this violence will shred the remnants of Bush policy in the Middle East.
To salvage the situation, the White House first must recognize its folly in endorsing a unilateral Israeli pullout from Gaza -- the brainchild of former Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. Bush said the unilateral withdrawal from Gaza would create a chance for a proto-democracy in Gaza. This was a gross misreading of the situation on the ground.
Broader peace talks
As I wrote a year ago, a unilateral pullout not linked to broader peace negotiations was bound to benefit Hamas, the radical Palestinian group that refuses to recognize Israel and wants to fight, not talk. Hamas claimed the unilateral pullout proved that only violence would push Israel out of the West Bank and Gaza. (Palestinians also saw the Gaza pullout as a ploy to solidify Israel's hold on the West Bank, while still controlling Gaza's borders, seaspace and airspace.)
Had Sharon openly coordinated the transfer with the moderate Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, Hamas' appeal might have been blunted. Abbas' Fatah party might have won the January elections. But Bush never urged his close ally Sharon to take this approach. So Palestinians, who were frustrated at the lack of talks and fed up with corruption inside Fatah, elected a Hamas government to power.
Yet the Bush team claimed it never saw a Hamas victory coming. Even more amazing, Bush recently hailed the "bold ideas" of Israel's new premier, Ehud Olmert, when he proposed another unilateral withdrawal from a large portion of the West Bank. Doesn't anyone in the administration get the message being pounded into our heads by the noise from Gaza: unilateral withdrawals, delinked from negotiations, do not work.
Pulling back from parts of the West Bank while keeping other chunks and all of Jerusalem won't end the fighting. It will provoke more bloodshed: shelling from outside the security fence, more Palestinian attacks against Israeli settlers, and more suicide bombs.
But Israelis rightly ask: Which Palestinians can they talk to? They can't negotiate with Hamas as long as it won't recognize the existence of their state.
This brings us to the vital role of the United States in salvaging the impasse, a role the White House has been trying hard to avoid.
The reason Bush officials glommed on to the idea of unilateral withdrawals was that it relieved them of having to mediate this messy conflict. They were mindful of the failures of previous administrations -- including Bill Clinton's.
Difficult choices
At this point the White House faces very difficult choices. The president can cling to the hope that Gazans' suffering will turn the population against the radicals who shell Israel, and that the Hamas government will be toppled. He can hope Israel may retrieve the captured soldier, Gilad Shalit, in a prisoner exchange, and the violence will die down.
These hopes are misplaced.
Pressure on Hamas can yield results only if Palestinians see that its violence is blocking their chances of gaining a viable state. Only then will they turn against Hamas.
But that won't happen unless the White House -- together with European and Arab allies, and maybe the Russians -- formulates a plan for two states that gives Palestinians an incentive to look for better leaders. It must be a detailed plan, one that holds out a long-term carrot for Palestinian leaders willing to recognize Israel and control the violence. Washington and its allies must together guarantee Israel's security under such a plan.
Trudy Rubin is a columnist and editorial-board member for the Philadelphia Inquirer. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.