Militant Hamas likely to do well in elections

Hamas is running in a dead heat with the ruling Fatah Party.
NABLUS, West Bank (AP) -- The militant Islamic group Hamas is poised to do well in Wednesday's Palestinian parliamentary elections -- maybe even too well for its own liking.
Palestinian officials and Hamas candidates say that even if the Islamic group wins, it would rather stay out of the driver's seat if that means having to talk to Israel and the West.
But the boost that the vote is sure to give militants committed to Israel's destruction is raising the prospect of profound but unpredictable change in Palestinian politics and Mideast peacemaking, leaving Israel, the United States and Europe wondering how to deal with Hamas' extraordinary rise.
The long-ruling Fatah Party of the late Yasser Arafat had been expected to pull off a narrow victory, but new poll numbers released Friday had Hamas drawing even.
The Palestinians and the rest of the world are asking: Can incorporating Hamas into politics and government tame it, or will that merely elevate radicals who reject peace? Recent comments by senior Hamas members signal it could go either way.
Mixed messages
The United States and the European Union have sent conflicting messages about Hamas, pressuring Israel behind the scenes to let Hamas participate in the election while at the same time publicly refusing to deal with what they deem a terrorist group.
Hamas' inclusion in the 132-seat Palestinian Legislative Council could hurt new peace hopes kindled by an unusually conciliatory stance from acting Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who took over after Ariel Sharon's devastating stroke Jan. 4.
Since assuming office, Olmert has expressed a desire to resume talks with Palestinians on a final peace deal, given approval for Palestinians in East Jerusalem to vote and ordered a crackdown on illegal Jewish settlers in the West Bank.
The elections are taking place against a backdrop of alarming lawlessness in the Palestinian territories, with several armed factions threatening to disrupt the vote, likely for fear of losing influence. Fatah-affiliated gunmen from the Balata refugee camp near Nablus told The Associated Press that that they would burn down polling stations.
"As long as we are alive, there will be no elections in Balata," said Alaa Sanakra, leader of the al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades in the camp.
Split vote possible
Further boosting Hamas' electoral prospects are dozens of Fatah activists running as independents and threatening to split the Fatah vote. Most have refused to heed Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas' call to withdraw from the race.
The Iranian-financed Hezbollah guerrillas in Lebanon also have been supporting Hamas in the elections, said a Fatah-affiliated gunman who spoke on condition of anonymity because Hezbollah did not want him to go public. The gunman said a senior Hezbollah operative called him to ask that his group refrain from disrupting the vote -- a request the gunman said he rejected.
A poll released Friday by the independent Jerusalem Media and Communications Center put Fatah and Hamas in a virtual dead heat for the first time -- 32 percent for Fatah and 30 percent for Hamas, with the rest of the vote divided among independents and various other parties. The survey of 1,000 voters had a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.
Competing themes
Hamas activists have played on the theme that it was their rockets and suicide bombings that pushed Israel out of the Gaza Strip last summer, not negotiations. "Ten years of failed talks equaled four years of resistance!" Hamas posters proclaim.
At a Gaza border crossing recently opened after painstaking talks with Israelis, Americans and Europeans, a Fatah leader delivered a very different line: "We are the pioneers in building the homeland," Mohammed Dahlan said as he handed out sweets and Qurans to Muslim pilgrims returning from Mecca.
Fatah's message, however, may be undermined by the party's long history of corruption and nepotism.
"We want to change the flavor," said Nimr Derbas, a 25-year-old in the West Bank city of Nablus. "Hamas people are closer to their God, close to their religion, and I think that's better."
During the campaign, Hamas has emphasized jobs and clean government over "armed struggle" -- running under the party name Change and Reform.
Yasser Mansour, who holds the No. 5 spot on Hamas' list of candidates, said a long-term truce with Israel is possible and both Israeli and Palestinian civilians should be protected from violence.
"We have enough political flexibility to deal with reality without recognizing [Israel's] illegal occupation" of the Palestinian lands, he said during an interview in a run-down building in Nablus.
Calls for demise of Israel
But Hamas has refused to renounce its charter calling for Israel's annihilation, and many of its candidates still speak of holy war.
"Hamas renews its commitment to you that we will remain loyal to jihad and resistance, loyal to the rifles and to Jerusalem," Hamas' top candidate, Ismail Haniya, told about 10,000 cheering supporters in Gaza on Friday.
Hamas has won municipal elections in many of the most important cities in Gaza and the West Bank, including Nablus. European countries and even U.S. agencies continue their contacts with those towns, and Israel has been coordinating with Hamas-backed mayors on day-to-day issues such as water and electricity.
On a higher level, though, the official U.S. and European policy is there can be no formal dealings with Hamas unless it denounces violence and recognizes Israel's right to exist.
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