In case you haven't noticed, there's an election up north

There's a certain irony unfolding in the Canadian national election next week -- oh, you weren't aware there is an election. Well, that's part of the irony.
Not only is Canada less than a week away from electing a (most likely new) prime minister, the country that pays so very little attention to Canada (that's us), is a hot topic on the campaign trail.
And even while the ruling Labor Party is attempting to make the presumed negative impact of the United States on Canada and the world an issue, polls show that the most likely result will be a victory for the Conservative Party, which tilts toward the right (and toward the south).
Canadian politics, it seems, can be every bit as confusing as American politics.
Liberal vs. Conservative
The Liberal incumbent is Paul Martin, heir to former Prime Minister Jean Chretien. Chretien is probably best remember by Americans for having a senior aide who called President Bush a "moron." It was impolitic and there were apologies all around, but the insult probably wasn't too far off the thinking in Chretien's inner circle.
His challenger is Conservative Stephen Harper. The issues run a gamut that would not be unfamiliar to Americans -- taxes, child care, drug laws, same-sex marriage, the Kyoto treaty -- but the issue that really seems to get the juices flowing in the chilly north is the United States. And the seemingly cruelest charge leveled against Harper is that he is in the thrall and mold of conservative American Republicans.
Nonetheless, polls show Harper the likely winner by 8 to 13 points, a margin that appears insurmountable this close to the election, barring a bombshell. A poll conducted for The Globe and Mail/CTV News shows support for a Conservative government cuts across all age groups, gender and income classes. For example, 58 percent of men and 51 percent of women say a Conservative majority would be good. And 52 percent of high-school and postgraduate students feel the same way.
Martin has played up his refusal to join the United States in Iraq and to cooperate in missile defense and what he sees as Bush's intransigence on global warming. And the United States is being blamed for an increase in gun crimes in Canada.
When the U.S. ambassador to Ottawa, David Wilkins, mildly remonstrated at this U.S.-bashing, Martin reacted as if Wilkins had been caught red-handed trying to fix the election with CIA gold. He would not be "dictated to" by the United States, he declared.
A second chance
President Bush would be happy to see Harper elected -- and not just because of the whole "moron" thing. A new government in Ottawa would give Washington an opportunity for something of a fresh start.
That wouldn't be a bad thing, given that Canada is our closest ally (with whom we share the world's longest undefended border) and largest trading partner. And while Canada and the United States parted company in Iraq, it has been a reliable partner in Afghanistan.
There's one other irony to this election -- the reason Martin hasn't been able to ride anti-Americanism to re-election. His party has been caught up in a nasty corruption scandal and after 13 years of Liberal rule, Canadians are inclined toward a change. That's enough to send a chill down the spine of a Canadian Liberal or an American Republican.