Ernesto highlights forecast challenge

MIAMI (AP) -- The fizzling of Tropical Storm Ernesto was a perfect example of what forecasters constantly tell residents of hurricane-prone states: Scientists are far better at predicting where a storm will go than determining how powerful it will be.
"It's like having a jigsaw puzzle with a million pieces," said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center. "Some have no colors. Some pieces are missing. It's hard."
Ernesto hit Cuba on Sunday as a Category 1 hurricane, and forecasters predicted it would weaken briefly, then rapidly regain strength before hitting Florida with winds of 74 mph to 130 mph.
But Cuba's mountainous terrain and unforeseen high-level winds caused Ernesto to lose power. It hit Florida with 45 mph winds, just 6 mph above the threshold for a tropical storm. In the end, it wasn't much worse than an ordinary August rainstorm.
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