Hostile words play into Castro's hands

If there was any question that the Bush administration and Cuban exile leaders should avoid aggressive statements after Cuban dictator Fidel Castro's apparent decision to hand over power to his brother Raul, an hourlong conversation with one of Cuba's leading dissidents removed any doubts.
I caught up with Oswaldo Paya late Wednesday. Paya, as leader of the Christian Liberation Movement, made headlines by collecting 25,000 signatures on the island for a referendum on democratic freedoms in the late '90s.
Paya told me that Castro's transfer of power to his brother has had "a real impact" on average Cubans.
"It's a new situation, in which there is a possibility of the end of an era in Cuba," which leads to "a variety of feelings, because there are many people who are identified with the government," he said. The climate on the streets is one of "caution, and a certain silence," he said.
Asked about the Bush administration's statements following Castro's announcement, Paya praised the U.S. government for its "caution" and "prudence" so far.
But he said that statements such as those by Miami Republican Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart on Tuesday, saying, "The time has come in Cuba for a campaign of civil resistance, civil disobedience," and a recent Bush administration report from its Commission for Assistance for a Free Cuba, which outlines U.S. plans for a post-Castro Cuba, can do more harm than good.
Ammunition
In addition to meddling in Cuba's internal affairs, they give the Cuban regime much-needed ammunition to continue perpetuating the myth that Washington wants to invade Cuba, and that Miami exiles are intent on evicting Cubans from their homes.
"We're in a very complex, very tense situation," Paya said. "The U.S. message should be to ratify that there is no such thing as a U.S. threat on Cuba, that there is no intention to intervene. It should say, 'Look, the Cuban process must be defined exclusively by the Cuban people.'"
Asked about Diaz-Balart's statement, Paya said that he doesn't want to get involved in any "domestic U.S. political debate," but added that "a congressman from another country, whatever his origin, and without being disrespectful, should not call on the Cuban people to do this or that. That's meddling in another country's affairs, and it's irresponsible."
"The United States, which I think has good intentions, should become aware that the leading role in Cuba's change does not lie with them," Paya continued. "Creating a commission that does a program that defines what must happen in Cuba should not be the U.S. role. ... What the United States should do is wait for the Cuban people to ask for the help it deems necessary, in the form it deems necessary."
What about the argument that democracies should help freedom-loving people everywhere, I asked.
"There are moments, and moments," Paya responded. "Now, the message should be of calm and nonintervention. These are very tense days in Cuba, and the most important thing is that there be peace, because there is a danger of (government) repression, and repression would bring about confrontation, and that could open up a process which nobody knows where it could end."
In a separate telephone interview last week, another well-known peaceful oppositionist, Vladimiro Roca -- the son of Cuba Communist Party founder Blas Roca -- told me that the Bush administration and Cuban exile leaders "should send a positive, nonthreatening, reconciliation message" to Cuba.
My conclusion: I agree. Fortunately, polls have shown that most Cuban exiles agree, too, and that they are not looking for revenge nor financial gain. But many Cubans on the island, bombarded by the regime's propaganda machine, still believe they are potential victims of a U.S. threat. That's why hostile noises from Washington, or from Miami politicians seeking headlines ahead of the November elections, play into Castro's hands.
Andres Oppenheimer is a Latin America correspondent for the Miami Herald. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.