FOOTBALL FORECASTING | NFL draft

21. NEW ENGLAND (10-6)
Last season: Battered by injuries to safety Rodney Harrison and offensive linemen Dan Koppen and Matt Light, the Patriots were 6-5 with four losses by at least 10 points before surging. They blew out Jacksonville in their first playoff game, then ended hopes for an unprecedented third straight Super Bowl championship by losing at Denver, where they committed five turnovers. Tom Brady led the NFL in yards passing, but the running game struggled. LB Tedy Bruschi provided a big lift after missing the first six games following a mild stroke the previous February. Injuries gave young players experience and cornerback Ellis Hobbs did well.
They need: Linebacker, wide receiver, kicker and young running back.
They don't need: Quarterback and tight end.
Possible first pick: The departure of LB Willie McGinest as a free agent to Cleveland makes that position a priority and Ohio State's Bobby Carpenter could be available. Southern California's LenDale White and Minnesota's Laurence Maroney are running back possibilities.
Outlook: The return of a healthy Harrison is critical. A hard hitter and leader on the field and in the locker room, Harrison holds the defense together along with Bruschi. But there's a new defensive coordinator for the second straight year, Dean Pees succeeding Eric Mangini, the New York Jets' head coach. If center Koppen and tackle Light play up to their past levels, the running game should be better. But the Patriots got weaker at kicker when they signed Martin Gramatica after Adam Vinatieri signed with Indianapolis. The departure of WR David Givens to Tennessee left only Deion Branch and Troy Brown as reliable receivers.
23. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (11-5)
Last season: The Bucs rebounded from consecutive losing seasons to win the NFC South and make the playoffs for the first time since winning the Super Bowl in 2002. RB Carnell "Cadillac" Williams was a difference-maker and Offensive Rookie of the Year, and young quarterback Chris Simms emerged after replacing the injured Brian Griese. Defense still makes the Bucs go, though, and it ranked No. 1 for the third time in team history.
They need: Offensive tackle, cornerback, linebacker.
They don't need: Running backs.
Possible first pick: Florida State CB Antonio Cromartie.
Outlook: Derrick Brooks-led defense is another year older, but again figures to be the team's strongest asset. With Williams, Simms and receivers Joey Galloway and Michael Clayton, the Bucs could be more dangerous than usual on offense. Biggest question mark is how well the line will protect Simms and open holes for Williams.
24. CINCINNATI (11-5)
Last season: Carson Palmer led the Bengals to their first winning record and playoff appearance in 15 years, then tore ligaments in his left knee during first-round loss to Pittsburgh. The defense gave up an average of 30 points over last eight games, but masked its shortcomings by leading the league in interceptions and takeaways.
They need: Help at safety, defensive line, tight end, backup quarterback.
They don't need: Running back, kicker.
Possible first pick: The Bengals could use a pass-catching tight end, but maybe not in the first round because they already have so much money tied up in receivers. The defense is still a primary concern. Ohio State S Donte Whitner and Georgia TE Leonard Pope could be considered.
Outlook: Palmer's recovery from reconstructive knee surgery could determine how next season plays out. He's expected to miss most of training camp and possibly some of the season. The Bengals don't have a proven backup now that Jon Kitna is in Detroit. They could still get one through free agency. Signing DT Sam Adams and S Dexter Jackson filled two glaring needs on defense, opening up their options in the draft.
25. NEW YORK GIANTS (11-5)
Last season: QB Eli Manning's first full season as a starter helped produce a division title and the second-most points in franchise history. RB Tiki Barber proved 30 isn't too old to have his best season. A defense led by MLB Antonio Pierce was dominant at times and adequate at others before injuries wiped out the linebacking corps. Special teams were a difference-maker, particularly ageless P Jeff Feagles and PK Jay Feely (148 points, second best in the NFL). GM Ernie Accorsi's offseason acquisitions (Pierce, Feely, DT Kendrick Clancy and WR Plaxico Burress) paid off. Top draft pick Corey Webster took his lumps at cornerback, but showed potential. A brutal 23-0 playoff loss to Carolina will motivate team in 2006.
They need: An immovable object on the defensive line to replace Clancy, who signed with Arizona. Help at defensive back; gone are safeties Shaun Williams and Brent Alexander and CB Will Allen. A dependable (read: healthy) third option at wide receiver behind Burress and Amani Toomer. A veteran backup for Manning More depth at linebacker.
They don't need: Skill position players on offense. Defensive ends need not apply, either: Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora made the Pro Bowl last season, and promising Justin Tuck is waiting in the wings.
Possible first pick: Cromartie.
Outlook: There is a nice balance of youth and age and lots of weapons on offense. But the line is unpredictable and the DB situation could become dire.
26. CHICAGO BEARS (11-5)
Last season: Won the NFC North and lost in the first round of the playoffs to Carolina. RB Cedric Benson was slowed by a month-long contract holdout and knee injury and gained 272 yards on 67 carries. Rookie WR Mark Bradley suffered a season-ending knee injury after making 18 catches for 230 yards. Kyle Orton quarterbacked the team to 10 victories in 15 starts after starter Rex Grossman suffered a preseason broken ankle.
They need: Tight end, cornerback, wide receiver, defensive end, linebacker.
They don't need: A quarterback or running back.
Possible first pick: UCLA TE Marcedes Lewis, Fresno State CB Richard Marshall, Miami WR Sinorice Moss.
Outlook: Unless the Bears lose restricted free agent linebacker Hunter Hillenmeyer, they'll have all 22 starters back. They have the only coaching staff in the NFC North still intact from last year and could have the only returning starting quarterback if Green Bay's Brett Favre retires. They also have the league's easiest 2006 schedule in terms of 2005 winning percentages. So they expect another playoff run, if not a Super Bowl challenge. Draft picks are needed largely as backup help.
27. CAROLINA PANTHERS (11-5)
Last season: They advanced to the NFC championship game for the second time in three seasons, but lost 34-14 at Seattle.
They need: Linebackers. The Panthers lost starters Will Witherspoon (free agency) and Brandon Short (released) and injuries have prevented Dan Morgan from playing a full season. Also need backup running back.
They don't need: A No. 2 receiver, which was filled when they signed Keyshawn Johnson last month. He'll line up across the field from All-Pro Steve Smith and likely take balls away from Keary Colbert and Drew Carter -- leaving Ricky Proehl as the odd man out.
Possible first pick: White or Alabama LB DeMeco Ryans.
Outlook: The Panthers firmly believe they are one or two players away from winning the Super Bowl. That impact player may not come through the draft, unless its a high-performance RB who can team with DeShaun Foster to give Carolina the same 1-2 punch it had with Foster and Stephen Davis three seasons ago.
28. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (12-4)
Last season: Won eight of their last nine games, taking advantage of a relatively weak schedule, and returned to the playoffs for the first time since 1999. QB Byron Leftwich and RB Fred Taylor each missed five games with injuries, but they returned for the first round of the playoffs, a 28-3 loss at New England.
They need: LB, TE, OL. The Jags lost OLB Akin Ayodele to Dallas, making the position a priority despite ongoing talks with high-priced free agent LaVar Arrington. They paid TE Kyle Brady a $400,000 roster bonus last month, but the 34-year-old player is in the final year of his contract. They addressed concerns at offensive tackle by signing Mike Williams and Stockar McDougle, former first-round picks who failed to meet expectations, but could still use line help.
They don't need: WR, QB, DL. After drafting receivers in the first round the last two years (Reggie Williams in 2004, Matt Jones in 2005), it's a safe bet the Jags will avoid the position. Although Leftwich has been injury prone, David Garrard has proven to be a capable backup. The team has its most talent along the defensive line with Marcus Stroud, John Henderson, Reggie Hayward, Paul Spicer and Rob Meier.
Possible first pick: Carpenter.
Outlook: The Jags are in good shape to fill their biggest needs because the draft has depth at linebacker and tight end.
30. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (14-2)
Last season: A near-perfect regular-season produced Indy's third straight AFC South title and home-field advantage in the playoffs. Then Pittsburgh ended the Colts' best Super Bowl chance with a stunning divisional-round upset.
They need: A new RB to replace departed Edgerrin James, depth at LB after losing David Thornton in free agency, and an interior lineman to solidify blocking.
They don't need: WR, QB.
Possible first pick: After losing their career rushing leader to Arizona, the Colts need a running back. Maroney has the size and speed to excel in the NFL. Should Southern Cal's White slip this far, the Colts may take a back who some compare to Jerome Bettis. If there's a surprise, it could be LSU's Joseph Addai.
Outlook: The last time team president Bill Polian took a running back this high, he stunned everyone by selecting James over Heisman Trophy winner Ricky Williams. It could happen again. Polian wants a more proficient runner in the red zone, but needs someone who can also adapt to Peyton Manning's audibles, catch the ball and can block. Maroney is the more powerful runner, but White has more experience in a pro-style offense. Addai may be the best overall fit.
31. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (13-3)
Last season: Best in team's 30-year history: NFC West champions, first top conference seed, first Super Bowl -- which they lost 21-10 to Pittsburgh.
They need: A starting CB, DL depth.
They don't need: Running backs. Or a young quarterback to back up Matt Hasselbeck. They'd like to free dynamo Senaca Wallace to play some WR.
Possible first pick: Miami (Fla.) CB Kelly Jennings.
Outlook: If they don't sign Pro Bowl CB Ty Law after courting him, the Seahawks will need a replacement for departed starter Andre Dyson. If they do sign Law, they still need DB depth. The return of starting FS Ken Hamlin from a fractured skull remains iffy. They also have only one veteran DE backing up Grant Wistrom and Bryce Fisher. Watch for a deal: Seattle has traded its first-round choice four times in the seven years coach Mike Holmgren has been with the team.
32. PITTSBURGH STEELERS (11-5)
Last season: Put together one of the best late-season runs in NFL history, winning their final four regular-season games to reach the playoffs before winning three weeks in a row on the road in AFC playoffs and beating Seattle in the Super Bowl.
They need: WR, S, ILB, DE.
They don't need: One for the thumb -- after 26 years, they finally won their elusive fifth Super Bowl title. The champions are deep at QB and OLB.
Possible first pick: Southern Cal S Darnell Bing, White.
Outlook: Despite drafting last for the first time since 1980, they'll probably continue to pick the player they feel is the best available at the time, rather than one to fill a need. They do plan to add a fast receiver after losing free agent Antwaan Randle El.
47. ATLANTA FALCONS (8-8)
Last season: Faded badly to keep up incredible string of never having two straight winning seasons. Falcons lost four of last five and six of last eight to blow division lead. They shored up defense with DE/OLB John Abraham and S Lawyer Milloy.
They need: Cornerbacks, help on both lines, especially inside.
They don't need: QB, TE, WR, LBs.
Possible first pick: Choosing so late, the Falcons might not look to fill a hole, which means a running back such as Addai could wind up in Atlanta. They could be enticed by Jennings or Joseph on the corner, as well.
Outlook: The Falcons showed little staying power last season and need a spark from QB Michael Vick, LB Keith Brooking and CB DeAngelo Hall. They also must solve some of their OL woes in a division featuring three good pass-rushing teams.
53. WASHINGTON REDSKINS (10-6)
Last season: Coach Joe Gibbs showed he still has some magic, leading the team to its first postseason berth in six years. QB Mark Brunell had a comeback year, but the offense faded badly in the playoffs. Solid defense got the team past the first round at Tampa Bay before a loss at Seattle. Assistant coach Al Saunders was hired in January to liven up the attack.
They need: Weakside LB to replace LaVar Arrington, K, P, depth at DB and OL.
They don't need: WR.
Possible first pick: Miami (Fla.) LB Rocky McIntosh.
Outlook: As usual, the big-spending Redskins took care of as many needs as possible in free agency, which is just as well because they have only one pick -- a second-rounder -- in the first four rounds. If they can snag a quality LB at No. 53 overall, they'll have a relatively solid lineup on both sides of the ball. The season could hinge on whether Brunell, soon to turn 36, can have another good season and whether last year's first-round pick, Jason Campbell, is ready if Brunell falters. A return to the playoffs is a reasonable prospect.
Associated Press