Threats to the future of Lordstown are real, an analyst says.

Threats to the future of Lordstown are real, an analyst says.
LORDSTOWN -- Less than two years after the launch of the Chevrolet Cobalt, workers at General Motors' Lordstown complex are on edge about the plant's future.
The word in the plant is that GM has committed to the Cobalt only through 2009, which was confirmed by an industry analyst.
This is worrisome to workers because GM nearly closed the plant several years ago before announcing in 2002 that it would build the new Chevrolet Cobalt there. A $1 billion plant renovation was completed for the new car, which was launched in October 2004.
Greg Mason of Girard, who has worked 28 years at the plant, said he expects similar uncertainty over the next few years because he thinks GM wants to pit local unions against one another.
That worked the last time, added fellow worker Chuck Phipps of Ellsworth, because the union in Lordstown made concessions on combining job classifications and other efficiency measures that the company wanted.
"There's always that tension," he said.
Erich Merkle, analyst with IRN in Grand Rapids, Mich., said he doesn't blame workers for wondering about the future of the plant.
His research indicates GM has plans for the Cobalt only through 2009. He expects GM to revise the Cobalt or put out a new small car in 2010.
"They have to have a presence in that segment. One of the things that's interesting, though, is whether it will continue to be in Lordstown," Merkle said.
Bad news
That became more questionable when GM decided recently to scrap the replacement for the Saturn Ion, another small GM model, he said. GM had planned to build the replacement car in Lordstown, he said.
Soon after that decision was made, GM announced it was going to eliminate the midnight shift at Lordstown in June.
"The workers have reason to be concerned. There are other plants where GM has made more of an investment," Merkle said.
Lordstown isn't alone in its uncertainty, however. As GM looks for ways to cut costs, only its new assembly plant outside Lansing, Mich., and its pickup truck plants appear safe from being considered for closing, he said.
The $1 billion investment in Lordstown a few years ago is a good sign for the plant, but Ford recently announced it was closing a plant in Virginia that had been upgraded, he said.
In addition, an announcement three weeks ago raises questions about Lordstown, Merkle said. GM said it has plans for a $650 million plant in central Mexico, which will build small cars and be completed in 2008.
"I thought of Lordstown as soon as I saw that," he said.
Dan Flores, a GM spokesman, said the Mexican plant is to supply the Mexican market only. The Mexican car market is growing, so GM wants to build more cars there, he said.
As for Lordstown, he said he couldn't talk about the life cycle of the Cobalt for competitive reasons, and he declined to speculate on the future of the plant.
Reputation counts
Lordstown workers said they are concerned GM will move small-car production out of this country, but they hope that another vehicle could be brought to Lordstown if that happens.
As 2009 approaches, union officials will be working to make sure the plant's accomplishments are noticed in Detroit, said Jim Graham, president of Local 1112.
"We have to base our reputation on the job the people in the plant are doing," he said.
With the competitive environment in the auto industry, plants will have to make a case for their place in the company's operations every few years, he said.
Mason, a millwright at the plant, said the massive remodeling of the Lordstown plant and the launch of the Cobalt bode well for Lordstown.
"If they go by our past, our future is fine. We've proven that there's nothing we can't do," he said.
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