ANDRES OPPENHEIMER China shows U.S. the way to S. America

When Thomas A. Shannon Jr., the top U.S. diplomat in charge of Latin American affairs, arrives in China this week to discuss regional issues with his counterparts in Beijing, he may subtly try to convey a message -- don't mess with Latin America's support for democracy.
Will the Chinese agree? Before we try to answer that question, let's look at the facts. Shannon will be the first senior U.S. official responsible for Latin American affairs to travel to China for meetings with Chinese officials, U.S. officials say. His trip, which will also take him to Japan and South Korea, follows complaints by U.S. lawmakers that the Bush administration has been watching passively as China has dramatically increased its economic, military and political ties with Latin America. The Bush administration is divided over how to deal with China's new role in Latin America.
Not a threat
The U.S. State Department does not see China as a threat in the region, but rather as a rapidly growing country that desperately needs raw materials such as oil, copper and soybeans to maintain its current growth rates. China is so absorbed by its domestic needs that it has no energies to pursue political adventures in far-off places, according to this line of thought.
The Pentagon, on the other hand, fears that China -- in part because of a three-year-old U.S. law that cuts military training to countries that don't exempt U.S. citizens from prosecution by the International Criminal Court -- is becoming a major military trainer in the region. Washington should also worry about increasing Chinese activities in intelligence, communications and cyber warfare, Pentagon officials say.
In a telephone interview, Shannon told me that his three-day visit to Beijing will be "for consultations."
Shannon said that China is an "increasingly important player" in the region, and that it is thus important "to make sure that we understand what each other is up to, so that we make sure that there are no crossed wires."
What would be an example of crossed wires? I asked. Shannon answered that while he doesn't think that China wants to get involved in Latin America's domestic politics, "We see the region as having achieved a consensus about democracy, free markets and protecting the security of the democratic state, and our interest is to make certain that China respects this larger consensus."
He would not elaborate.
My own reading: In addition to having increased its imports from Latin America by 600 percent over the past five years, investing more than $1 billion a year in the region and sending dozens of military training missions to Latin America and the Caribbean every year, China recently gained observer status at the 34-country Organization of American States, and is seeking a role at the Inter-American Development Bank.
Line in the sand
I would not be surprised if the Bush administration wants to draw a line in the sand, and make sure that China doesn't become an extra-regional source of political and military support for radical anti-American leaders in the region, like the Soviet Union was during the Cold War.
Most likely, the Chinese will tell Shannon what he wants to hear. Judging from what I heard from Chinese officials last year in Beijing, China's main political interest in Latin America is preserving stability, in order to ensure that its supplies of raw materials are not disrupted. And, as the United States' second-largest trading partner after Canada, China is in no mood to provoke Washington. The United States should not worry, at least for now.
POSTSCRIPT: Speaking of U.S. diplomacy, I have just finished reading the Bush administration's recently released National Security Strategy, laying out the guidelines for U.S. foreign policy in coming years.
What struck me the most was not only that it fails to substantially amend the "preemptive strike" guidelines that brought about the Iraq fiasco, but that it calls for "continuing to re-orient the State Department toward transformational diplomacy" to promote democracy abroad.
Hmmm. That will be seen abroad as another example of U.S. political arrogance.
X Andres Oppenheimer is a Latin America correspondent for the Miami Herald. Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune.