ANDRES OPPENHEIMER Catholic Church must adopt a new approach

Pope Benedict XVI should start working on his Spanish: A new poll shows that the Roman Catholic Church has lost nearly 10 percent of its followers in Latin America during the past decade, and that the number of Protestant evangelicals has increased by just as much over the period.
The new figures, provided exclusively to this column by Latinobarometro, a Chile-based firm that conducts polls in 17 Latin American countries, confirm what many Catholics have long suspected: While Latin America remains the world's most Catholic region, accounting for about 43 percent of the world's 1.1 billion Catholics, the number of Catholics there is shrinking.
About 71 percent of Latin Americans considered themselves Roman Catholic in 2004, down from 80 percent in 1995, the poll shows. If the trend continues at this pace, only 50 percent of Latin Americans will identify themselves as Catholics by 2025.
"Clearly, the Roman Catholic Church is losing people in Latin America," says Marta Lagos, head of Latinobarometro. "Still, if you compare it with what has been happening in Europe, where Catholics have already become a minority in many countries, it's a relatively mild decline."
Latin American countries with the highest percentage of Catholics are Ecuador and Paraguay, where 84 percent of the people define themselves as Catholics, followed by Venezuela, with 83 percent, Argentina and Colombia, with 81 percent each, Mexico with 78 percent and Peru with 77 percent. The region's smallest Catholic population is Uruguay, with 51 percent.
By comparison, in Germany, the homeland of Pope Benedict XVI, only 33 percent of the people identify themselves as Catholics.
The Latinobarometro poll found that the relative decline of the Catholic population may result from an increase in the number of evangelicals and agnostics. Latin America's evangelicals have grown to 13 percent of the population, from 3 percent in 1995, while the percentage of people who don't identify themselves with any religion rose to 8 percent, from 4 percent in 1995.
In addition, the poll found that only 47 percent of Latin Americans describe themselves as practicing a religion, about the same as in 1995. Among Catholics, only 42 percent say they practice their religion. In some countries, such as Mexico, the number of people who describe themselves as practicing Catholics has dropped by 32 percent over the past decade.
Does all of this mean that the Catholic church is losing clout in Latin America? Not necessarily.
Trusted institution
The same poll shows that the Roman Catholic Church is the most trusted institution in Latin America, way ahead of politicians, journalists, business people or law enforcement officials. About 75 percent of Latin Americans say they trust the Roman Catholic Church, up from 67 percent in 2003, the poll says.
"The church's role as a moral leader and source of legitimacy remains solid, and is the main reference point in each Latin American society," Lagos says. "That leads us to believe that the Catholic Church will continue being the most important role model for several decades."
My conclusion: If Pope John Paul II could not reverse the decline of Catholicism in Latin America despite his significant charisma, Pope Benedict will have to try something new. It is no secret that Latin Americans were hoping that one of their own -- such as Sao Paulo Cardinal Claudio Hummes or Tegucigalpa Cardinal Oscar Andres Rodriguez -- would become the new pope.
Pope Benedict could decide to change church doctrine on controversial issues such as divorce or birth control, which is unlikely, or he could seek giving the Latin American church greater representation in Rome, which is more likely. Despite having the world's largest Catholic population, Latin America was represented by less than 20 percent of the cardinals who convened in Rome to elect the new pope.
Perhaps Pope Benedict should take advantage of the church's positive image in Latin America and increase its activism as a consensus-builder in a highly polarized region. ... It would be good for democracy, and it may be good for the church.
X Andres Oppenheimer is a Latin America correspondent for the Miami Herald. Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune Information Services.