PREAKNESS STAKES Giacomo probably won't be favorite

The Kentucky Derby winner tries for second leg of Triple Crown Saturday.
ASSOCIATED PRESS
The stage is set for what could be the most improbable run in Triple Crown history.
Giacomo pulled off the second-biggest upset in Kentucky Derby history and now heads to Baltimore for Saturday's Preakness Stakes, the second leg of the Triple Crown.
Full field of 14 horses
The gray colt's victory at 50-1 odds did nothing to scare off his rivals, though, and Giacomo probably won't even be the favorite in an expected full field of 14 horses for the 1 3/16th-mile race at Pimlico Race Course.
But if the 3-year-old son of Holy Bull comes away with another shocking win, then it's on to the Belmont Stakes three weeks later for a Triple Crown attempt.
Sound familiar? It should.
The past three Derby winners -- Smarty Jones, Funny Cide and War Emblem -- and six of the last eight went on to take the Preakness but fell short in the Belmont, leaving thoroughbred racing still looking for its first Triple Crown champion since Affirmed in 1978.
If Giacomo gets a Triple try, it would be the most unlikely of all.
Last long-shot winner
In 1999, Charismatic became the Derby winner with the longest odds to win the Preakness and enter the Belmont with a Triple Crown on the line. Charismatic won at 31-1 odds, then took the Preakness at 8-1 odds before finishing third in the Belmont.
Donerail produced the biggest upset in Derby history in 1913, winning at 91-1. But Donerail didn't run in the Preakness, held 10 days after the Derby.
Gallahadion won the 1940 Derby at 35-1 odds, but was third in the Preakness.
Trainer Bobby Frankel says it's hard to imagine Giacomo winning.
"But who knows? When you least expect it ..." he said. "After the Derby, anybody that's put in the starting gate has a chance."
Warns trainer Bob Baffert, a three-time Derby winner and 0-for-3 in Triple tries: "Don't count out Giacomo. That's a very good horse."
Then there's Giacomo's owner, A & amp;M Records founder Jerry Moss.
"We think he's still progressing," Moss said. "He had to surmount tremendous obstacles to win the race [Derby], and we think maybe the best is yet to come."
Probable favorite
Giacomo, who won only one race before the Derby, won't have it easy in the Preakness. Although Afleet Alex, who was third in the Derby, is the likely favorite, Giacomo won't be ignored in the betting -- or by rival trainers -- this time.
"He had it easy in the Derby because nobody thought he had a chance," Baffert said. "But he's tough."
He'd better be, because the first full field in the Preakness since 1992 seems certain. Other than Giacomo, as many as 10 other Derby horses are being considered, as well as five new shooters.
Afleet Alex trainer Tim Ritchey can't wait for another chance.
"The Preakness sets up very well for us," Ritchey said, "so hopefully we can turn the tables."
Also set to run
Closing Argument, the Derby runner-up at 72-1, Wilko (sixth) and Greeley's Galaxy (11th) also are set for another try, while trainer Nick Zito could send as many as three of his Derby starters -- High Fly (10th), Noble Causeway (14th) and Sun King (15th).
His other two starters won't be around. Bellamy Road, who finished seventh as the 5-2 Derby favorite, is sidelined with a minor foot injury. Andromeda's Hero (eighth) is being pointed to the Belmont on June 11.
Closing Argument will try to make up the half-length by which he was beaten in the Derby. But his trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin, thinks Afleet Alex may be the horse to catch.
"I have a lot of respect for Afleet Alex, and he'll be tough to beat," McLaughlin said. "But we ran a tough race in the Derby, and so did the winner."