Results suggest racial divide

The Democratic primary winner won less than half of the wards.
By DAVID SKOLNICK
VINDICATOR POLITICS WRITER
YOUNGSTOWN -- The color of the candidates' skin played a factor in the Youngstown Democratic mayoral primary, but not as much as in recent previous citywide elections, election results suggest.
State Sen. Robert F. Hagan, the primary winner who is white, won two of the three predominantly white wards -- the 4th and 5th -- as well as the 3rd Ward, a mixed ward that leans black. But Hagan's advantage there may be that he is a 3rd Ward resident.
Police Chief Robert E. Bush Jr., the top vote-getter among black candidates, won the three predominantly black wards -- the 1st, 2nd and 6th.
Former council President John R. Swierz, a white candidate and former 7th Ward councilman, won his home ward.
There were differences Tuesday compared with Youngstown Democratic primary races in 1997, 2001 and 2003 that pitted a white candidate against a black one.
First, those previous races didn't have seven candidates. Also, Hagan received respectable numbers in the black wards. Bush finished second in the 5th Ward, and in third place in the 4th and 7th Wards.
Turnout in the predominantly black wards wasn't as strong as those in predominantly white wards. Overall, turnout in the city was about 28 percent, and it was 26 percent countywide.
"It looks as though none of these candidates motivated the African-American community," said Paul Sracic, a Youngstown State University political science professor. "But the results show that Hagan has some loyalty in that community."
Crossover appeal
Bush said he wasn't surprised by his respectable showing in the white wards. Bush fared well in those wards when he ran for a seat on the Youngstown school board in the early 1990s.
"A minority cannot win the city without crossover appeal" in the white wards, Bush said. "Also, Hagan as a state senator obviously had crossover appeal. Race was not as strong a factor in this race compared to the past, but it's still a big factor."
As was the case in the 2003 Democratic primary for council president, Swierz, who is white, and President James E. Fortune Sr., who is black, showed they have virtually no racial crossover appeal.
Despite an overall third place finish, Swierz was fifth among seven candidates in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 6th Wards. Only Councilman Michael Rapovy of the 5th Ward and Bill Flickinger, considered fringe candidates and are both white, finished worse than Swierz in those four wards.
Fortune finished in fourth place in the 3rd and 4th Wards, and in fifth place in the 5th and 7th Wards.
As has been the case in previous elections, the primary was decided in the predominantly white 4th Ward.
Hagan received 1,167 votes in the ward compared with 1,200 for the six other candidates combined. He beat Bush by 765 votes in the 4th Ward, and defeated the police chief by 1,061 overall in the city.
Most of the seven candidates did well in their home precinct, but there were some exceptions.
* Hagan got 126 votes in his home precinct, 3J, with Bush finishing second with 75 votes.
* Bush, 66 votes in 2B with Patton in second with 61 votes.
* Patton, 60 votes in 5M, only 1 more vote than Bush.
* Swierz, 106 votes in 7L with Hagan in second with 65 votes.
* Fortune, 20 votes in 6F, finishing third behind Bush with 23 votes and Patton with 22 votes.
* Rapovy, a distant fourth in 5E with 19 votes. Hagan won Rapovy's home precinct with 86 votes.
* Flickinger, 1 vote in 2J, finishing in a tie for last with Rapovy in his home precinct. Bush won Flickinger's home precinct with 36 votes.
November election
Hagan faces a white Republican, and four independents -- two white and two black -- in the November general election.
Besides Hagan, the most notable candidate in the race is Jay Williams, the city's former Community Development Agency director and a black man.
"Hagan has shown the ability to cross racial lines, and Williams has the potential to attract white voters," Sracic said. "To win this race, you have to cross racial lines."
Race did play a huge role in the two other citywide Democratic primaries for municipal court judge and council president, voting results suggest.
Judge Robert P. Milich, who won Tuesday by about 500 votes and is white, captured all but a handful of predominantly white precinct in the city. His opponent, Cherie H. Howard, who is black, won nearly every predominantly black precinct in Youngstown.
In the council president primary, Charles P. Sammarone, who is white, won nearly every predominantly white precinct and the primary. M. Mike McNair, who is black, was the victor in the predominantly black precincts.
Councilman Mark S. Memmer of the 7th Ward, who finished a distant third in the primary and is white, only won his home precinct, 7K.
skolnick@vindy.com