Attacks, deaths of U.S. soldiers see downturn since elections

Attacks have been focused more on Iraqi officials than coalition troops.
BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) -- Insurgent attacks in Iraq have fallen dramatically since the Jan. 30 elections, and the number of U.S. deaths reported this month dropped to the lowest in a year.
But the news isn't all good. Militants are focusing their attacks on Iraqi government and security officials as the new leaders of Iraq assume a greater role in their fragile nation.
Both U.S. and Iraqi officials agree that attacks overall have fallen since the Jan. 30 elections, although it is unclear if the trend is just a temporary lull as militants change tactics, or a sign that the insurgency is weakening.
Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, which has been tracking the insurgency, said attacks against U.S. forces have dropped by at least 25 percent since last fall, when U.S. officials launched a major offensive against the insurgent stronghold of Fallujah. Attacks then ranged from 80 to 90 a day, O'Hanlon said.
Attack numbers
However, attacks still haven't fallen below the level of a year ago -- between 10 to 20 a day, according to a Defense Department document dated July 2004.
U.S. defense officials say they were down to 40 to 45 a day in recent weeks, lower than the pre-election average of 50 to 60 a day.
The change was apparent after the elections, with the number of U.S. soldiers killed dropping from 58 in February to 30 in March -- the lowest monthly death toll since 20 American soldiers were killed in February 2004, according to an Associated Press count.
U.S. withdrawal in sight?
Air Force Lt. Gen. Lance Smith said U.S. forces could begin coming home in significant numbers if insurgent violence is low through general elections scheduled for the end of the year.
A larger and more capable insurgency, setbacks in the efforts to develop Iraq security forces, or missed deadlines by the transitional government could delay any significant drawdown, said Smith, the deputy commander of U.S. Central Command.
As reports of car bombings and ambushes noticeably dwindle, another trend has been seen as more Iraqi police and soldiers are put out on the street.
Insurgent strategy
Attackers are targeting Iraqi officials seen as traitors for working with -- and eventually replacing -- the U.S.-led coalition, Army Capt. Salman Abdul Wahid said, adding that many attacks in March were against Iraqi forces.
"The Iraqi army and police are easy targets for terrorists," he said. "They lack the modern equipment of the Americans."
There are also more of them on the streets every day. Ali al-Faisal, a member of the Shiite clergy-backed United Iraqi Alliance, a coalition of lawmakers leading the new parliament, said the change was because Iraqi police are taking the lead in fighting the insurgency.
"In the past, they were targeting the American forces because they were in charge of security," he said. "After the new Iraqi army and police were established -- and succeeded in maintaining security and began annihilating [the insurgents] -- they shifted their attacks."
Americans still targets
Still, insurgents haven't forgotten the Americans. On Saturday, two U.S. soldiers were killed and two others were wounded by a car bomb in Baghdad.
The developments are being closely watched, as U.S. and Iraqi officials try to determine when the U.S. government will withdraw from the country.
On Monday, interim Interior Minister Falah al-Naqib outlined progress by the growing number of security forces and said attacks were not only decreasing, but claiming fewer victims. He credited the growing role of Iraqi forces, saying it was easier for them to gather intelligence on insurgents than it was for U.S. troops.
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