Tablack: Financial forecast is too low

Commissioners must approve at least a temporary 2006 budget by year's end.
By DEBORA SHAULIS
VINDICATOR STAFF WRITER
YOUNGSTOWN -- Two Mahoning County commissioners and the auditor are at odds over the forecast for the 2006 budget.
Commissioners Anthony Traficanti and David Ludt are questioning Auditor Michael V. Sciortino's projection of a $9 million deficit next year, based on their review of figures from budget director George J. Tablack.
Traficanti and Ludt say they want the county budget commission -- which consists of Sciortino, Prosecutor Paul J. Gains and Treasurer John Reardon -- to re-examine certain figures before they approve a certificate of resources that gives commissioners the authority to allocate funds.
Commissioners must approve a temporary or permanent 2006 budget at the next regular meeting, which is scheduled for Thursday. The budget commission is expected to meet Tuesday or Wednesday.
Budget requests
Commissioners met earlier this month with department heads, whose 2006 budget requests total approximately $58 million, Tablack said.
Sciortino says the estimated deficit was based on revenue estimates of $42 million next year and expenditures of $51 million this year. Revenues may be closer to $46 million, he said Thursday.
"I didn't certify anything for 2006 yet," Sciortino said. "My original numbers were preliminary, with flatline projections in every revenue code."
Tablack pointed to growth in county sales tax collections, options for repaying a loan for operation of the Mahoning County jail, new property valuations that will increase tax collections and year-end cash balances in various departments.
Underestimated
"In summary, the Certificate of Estimated Resources for the 2006 General Fund could perhaps be understated by $10 million," Tablack wrote Wednesday in an e-mail to Sciortino.
"That is just a very, very liberal projection of where the revenues may be next year," Sciortino said.
Sciortino and Tablack agree in some areas.
The jail loan of $7.3 million was borrowed against future sales tax collections to address issues of overcrowding and understaffing after inmates won a federal lawsuit. Commissioners passed a resolution last May that amortized bond repayment over five years, but they also considered paying the loan off in two years because one of two 0.5 percent sales tax issues will expire in 2007.
The commissioners have the authority to decide which method is best, Tablack said. Repaying the loan over five years would give the county $2 million more in next year's budget, and the added cost of interest on the five-year loan would be negligible, he said.
Sciortino said his earlier projection was based on a two-year repayment plan, to limit interest payments. Given the county's financial situation and conditions at the jail, which currently is under federal supervision, "five years does seem to make more sense," he said.
Sciortino said Tablack used numbers from the auditor's office to calculate property tax assessments, which will increase by about $1.5 million next year. Property values are reassessed every six years.
Sales tax
Sales tax collections grew by nearly 4 percent this year, Tablack said, and he anticipates 3 percent growth next year. That would be $27.2 million, compared with the budget commission's estimate of $24.1 million, he said.
Three percent growth is "liberal," Sciortino said. If that growth is real, Sciortino said, he'll call additional meetings of the budget commission to increase the certificate of revenues, rather than decertify figures because the money isn't there.
Sciortino and Tablack also differ on year-end cash balances from county departments. Sciortino previously projected about $256,000 in carryover from this year to next, a figure that he now acknowledges will be higher, but not as high as Tablack's forecast of $5 million.
"If we're assuming a $5 million carryover, everybody would like to see how that's explained," Commissioner John McNally IV said.
All three commissioners say they would attend the budget commission hearing if invited.
"If [Sciortino] calls a meeting, I certainly would like to sit in and hear what he and the treasurer and the prosecutor want to discuss," McNally said. "I think it's important for all of the commissioners and the budget director to be there."
Public meeting
The budget commission meeting will be a public meeting, Sciortino said.
Traficanti and Ludt declined to discuss what action they may take if the budget commission doesn't honor their request before issuing a new certificate of resources.
"I have every confidence that they will give this a fair hearing," Tablack said.
shaulis@vindy.com