Experts expect large turnout as voters pick government

The votes are expected to be more evenly split among parties.
Chicago Tribune
BAGHDAD, Iraq -- For the third time in less than a year, Iraqis prepared to head to the polls early today to cast ballots in an election that could make the difference between peace and war in their country.
After a rambunctious and fiercely fought campaign, during which more than a dozen candidates and campaign workers were killed, the streets fell silent on the eve of the poll.
Shops and businesses closed, and most people stayed indoors as police fanned out across the country to enforce a three-day ban on vehicle traffic aimed at deterring suicide bombers, obliging voters to walk to the polls as they did during January's election and October's referendum on a new constitution.
Far fewer uncertainties loom over this election than the one in January, when no one knew for sure whether it would even be safe enough for Iraqis to venture to the polling booths.
Iraq's security forces are stronger than they were in January, when voting took place against a backdrop of mortar attacks and suicide bombings that deterred many voters from leaving their homes. October's referendum was marked by an almost complete absence of violence, and election officials are hoping this election also will be calm.
What's predicted
Election officials are predicting that 10 million of the 15 million eligible voters will turn out, which would represent a significant improvement on the 58-percent turnout in January's election.
Different uncertainties now attend this vote, including what the likely outcome will be. With no public opinion polls available, because of the dangers of accurately surveying people in strife-torn swathes of the country, no one can reliably predict how Iraqis will cast their ballots.
Voters are being asked to choose between a bewildering array of 307 parties and coalitions, fielding more than 7,000 candidates for a 275-member Council of Representatives, from which the first full-term government since the fall of Saddam Hussein will be formed.
Most observers expect to see the votes more evenly split among various parties than they were the last time, when the absence of Sunni voters disproportionately favored two main coalitions representing the Kurdish and Shiite communities.
Shiites, who account for roughly 60 percent of the population, are still expected to vote overwhelmingly for the United Iraqi Alliance, the coalition of religious parties that won the most seats in the last legislature.
Kurds in the north are also expected to vote overwhelmingly for the Kurdish Coalition grouping the two main Kurdish parties, the Kurdish Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan.
But the expected participation of voters in the Sunni minority, whose leaders have urged them to vote this time around to redress the political imbalance, makes it unlikely the Shiite coalition will win an outright majority of seats in the new assembly.
The Shiite Alliance is also facing a strong challenge from the secular Shiite politician Ayad Allawi, the former interim prime minister appointed by the United States.