DAVID SKOLNICK | Politics Is Ohio a lost cause for Kerry campaign?

If it came down to numbers, there wouldn't be much of a contest in Ohio between President Bush and U.S. Sen. John Kerry.
Ohio lost 237,400 jobs during the Bush administration, or more than 25 percent of all jobs lost in the nation while the Republican has been in the White House.
The state's unemployment rate stood at 6.3 percent in August, the third straight month it has increased. It was 3.9 percent when Bush took office in January 2001. Also, the national unemployment rate was 5.4 percent last month.
Health care costs have risen with Bush in office, as have college tuition and gasoline prices. Medicare premiums will increase by 17 percent next year, and some military veterans are seeing a reduction or the complete elimination of their health care service at Veterans Administration hospitals and an increase in out-of-pocket expenses. Some Ohioans blame the Bush administration for the devastating decline in manufacturing jobs in the state, the closing of plants, and the outsourcing of jobs.
There are those who feel Bush "stole" the 2000 election. Even if you disagree with that, he lost the popular vote in that election; hardly a mandate from voters for his administration.
There are plenty of people angry with Bush about what's going on in Iraq. The anti-Bush sentiment in the country, while cooling in recent weeks, is still out there. It's so prevalent that it even has an acronym: ABB, Anybody But Bush.
His 2000 victory in Ohio is hardly something of which to be proud. He won by 3.6 percent beating Democrat Al Gore, who pulled out of the state about three weeks before the election, thinking it wasn't winnable.
A logical conclusion would be that Bush has no chance to win Ohio, described by both sides as a key battleground state.
So how is it that during the past few weeks, polls show that Bush is pulling ahead -- anywhere from 7 percent to 12 percent -- of Kerry in Ohio?
The downward spiral of Kerry's campaign in Ohio led Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm to express surprise because the candidate is leading in her state. "I don't understand why [Kerry's message is] not getting through in Ohio, especially, because their experience is so similar to ours," she said.
There is still time for Kerry to catch Bush. The two will debate, and Kerry supporters and campaign officials say the Democrat is superior to Bush at debating.
Don't forget that Kerry was considered a dead candidate before the Iowa caucus in January. Not only did he win the caucus, but he dominated in nearly every state's primary or caucus, and easily captured the Democratic nomination.
Even so, a comeback seems unlikely for Kerry this time, at least in Ohio. There are a number of theories. Here are a few.
UBush officials say that most of Kerry's supporters aren't really behind him. They are just angry at Bush, and they don't see a realistic plan from Kerry as to how he will improve the economy and handle foreign relations. They are now seeing that Kerry has no realistic plan to turn around the nation, and Bush's efforts are slowly, but steadily improving the economy.
In interviews with numerous Mahoning Valley voters over the past few months, I found few who support Kerry because of his stance on the issues. Most just don't like Bush. There have been cases throughout history of a strong anti-incumbent feeling leading to the defeat of presidents seeking re-election, but that doesn't appear to be the case this time.
UThe Swift Boat campaign put Kerry on the defensive about his military service. Although it was seen in only a handful of markets, including Youngstown, the buzz it got nationally -- particularly from conservative opinion makers -- raised questions about Kerry's war record, something he used as a key campaign issue.
UFew people watched it, but the strategy during the Republican National Convention to focus on Bush's leadership after 9/11 as well as a few well-placed jabs at Kerry was more effective than the Democrats' strategy to say little to nothing about the failures of the current administration during their convention.
UTwo key components of Kerry's platform are a significant reduction in the cost of health care, which would also allow more people access, and free college tuition in exchange for community service. The money for these ideas would come from rolling back the tax cuts Bush gave to those making $200,000 or more. The Kerry administration insists that would be enough to pay for the programs, but it sounds so far-fetched that it's hard to believe, and therefore doesn't resonate with voters.