HOW HE SEES IT Pro-democracy in Hong Kong

By DANIEL SNEIDER
KNIGHT RIDDER NEWSPAPERS
Sunday's elections in Hong Kong were closely watched for signs of the future of democracy not only in that former British colony but in mainland China itself. The results offer a very mixed message.
For those who prefer to see the glass half-full, the election validated hopes for Chinese democracy. A record turnout of 1.7 million voters cast ballots overwhelmingly -- an estimated 60 percent to 67 percent -- in favor of pro-democracy candidates.
As they did in mass demonstrations over the past two years, Hong Kong's citizens clearly told the communist rulers in Beijing that they want fully free elections to choose their leaders. The vote was a repudiation of the communists' declaration in April that they would not accept direct election of the Hong Kong chief executive in 2007 and of the entire legislature in 2008.
The vote is even more impressive against a backdrop of a campaign of intimidation and manipulation carried out by the communists. As Human Rights Watch documented in a report issued before the vote, opposition politicians, journalists and voters faced an organized effort to pressure them to back pro-Beijing candidates.
"The past 12 months have seen the most worrying attacks on free expression and association since the 1997 handover," said Brad Adams, executive director of Human Rights Watch's Asian division. "This appears to be a direct result of Beijing's desire to control the political situation in Hong Kong."
Menacing portrayal
This attack included a menacing portrayal of opponents as being unpatriotic. In an attempt to draw a contrast, Beijing staged military parades in Hong Kong, sent in naval flotillas, even organized a visit by victorious Olympic athletes to appeal to Chinese nationalism.
Viewed through the glass half-empty, the Sunday election results were a triumph for this intimidation campaign. Because of the unrepresentative nature of the Hong Kong voting system and perhaps as well because of their public pressure, the pro-democracy forces captured only 25 of the 60 seats in the legislature.
Half the seats are elected by special interests -- mostly business and professional groups that do not dare wander far from a pro-Beijing position.
Beijing now has firm control of the Hong Kong legislative council. Pro-democracy activists fear it may try again to impose a draconian "anti-subversive" law that gives it almost free rein to crack down on any opposition. The last attempt to do that was blocked by the protests of hundreds of thousands of Hong Kong residents last year.
But some experts believe the Chinese leadership understands it does not have enough political capital to head in that direction. "The outcome is sufficiently mixed that the impact on Beijing's thinking will also be mixed," Minxin Pei, the director of the China program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told me.
Beijing may feel vindicated in its retreat from the commitment to full democracy in Hong Kong. But it may also feel more confident to reach out to the opposition and negotiate political reform.
Where things go in Hong Kong will be watched closely elsewhere -- first of all in Taiwan. No Taiwanese can feel confident that their vibrant democracy would last very long if they opt for a Hong Kong-style reunification with the mainland.
Perhaps the most important audience lies within China itself. Those who long for an opening of China's political system see the handling of Hong Kong as a harbinger of their own future. The Chinese Communist leadership, which is gathering now for a critical meeting, is itself deeply divided on how far and how fast to go in the direction of political reform. But, says Pei, "Hong Kong is a place where they have more leeway than in China itself."
For all those reasons, Beijing needs to heed the voice of Hong Kong's unbowed people rather than celebrate the rewards of its manipulation.
XSneider is foreign affairs columnist for the San Jose Mercury News.