What will it take for Kerry to win Ohio?

Local Democrats expect a Kerry comeback in Ohio.
By DAVID SKOLNICK
VINDICATOR POLITICS WRITER
YOUNGSTOWN -- Is John Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee, falling far behind President Bush in Ohio, considered a key battleground state?
Perhaps, according to recent polls, political experts and, begrudgingly, even some Democrats.
"I wish the campaign was going better nationwide, not just in Ohio," said state Sen. Marc Dann of Liberty, D-32nd. "We're on the right side of things, but we spend a lot of time on things that aren't important," such as Kerry's military service in Vietnam and his subsequent opposition to that war.
Kerry's campaign needs to focus on issues important to state residents such as job creation, improving the economy, education and health care, he said.
Several Mahoning Valley Democrats said the Republicans are framing the issues in the presidential election, and Kerry needs to do that.
Lisa Antonini, Mahoning County Democratic chairwoman, said the "Republican spin machine" has been "masterful in crafting the message and the tone of the message. That's a compliment to them."
Antonini is pleased to see Kerry is getting more aggressive and taking the attack to Bush.
Ohio polls
Recent polls of likely Ohio voters have Bush ahead of Kerry in the key battleground state by 8 percent to 12 percent. Until a few weeks ago, most polls had the race a statistical dead-heat.
Local Democrats say Bush benefited from the recent Republican National Convention, which showcased the president and his supporters.
Brendon Cull, spokesman for the Ohio Democratic Coordinated Campaign, said Ohio is at the top of Kerry's list of important states, and the candidate has no plans to abandon it.
"This is not a state where there's going to be a huge landslide victory for either candidate," he said. "You're going to see more visits and more surrogates in Ohio through the rest of the campaign. The campaign in Ohio will go down to the last day. It's a tough state to win, but we're going to win it."
Close results
Kevin Madden, a Bush-Cheney campaign spokesman, said Kerry failure in Ohio is his inability to connect to the state's voters, but acknowledges the results will be close on Election Day. The president, Vice President Dick Cheney, and Republican surrogates will continue to visit Ohio until Election Day, he said.
"Kerry's policies are out of whack with Ohio; more taxes and more regulations aren't the answers," he said. "Ohio knows Kerry as a guy who takes six sides to a two-sided issue. Ohio will continue to remain a priority for the [Republican] campaign."
State Sen. Robert F. Hagan of Youngstown, D-33rd, said he is a bit concerned that Kerry's polling numbers aren't as strong as they should be, but many people are still not interested in the presidential race.
Hagan and Mahoning County Commissioner Ed Reese, a member of Kerry's national finance committee, said the Democratic presidential nominee was hurt by television ads from Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, a Republican-funded group, that questioned Kerry's war record.
"He's had to waste time with questions he shouldn't have to answer," Hagan said. "He's been focusing on health care, the economy and education. But he also has to fend off these Vietnam questions. His campaign in Ohio needs to be more aggressive."
Kerry's campaign is having some problems in Ohio, but there's plenty of time for a comeback, said William Binning, chairman of Youngstown State University's political science department.
"But it looks like Bush is going to win Ohio," he said. "I can't imagine why Kerry isn't doing better in Ohio, which suffered through a big economic loss. There should be backlash against the president, and support for Kerry. But if the election were tomorrow, Kerry wouldn't look good."
Kerry has always been a poor candidate for this area, said Paul Sracic, a YSU political science professor, because he "looks like he'd own the mill instead of work at it. He's a Massachusetts Democrat, and there's a big difference between that and a Youngstown Democrat."
Bush's lead
John Green, director of the University of Akron's Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics, said recent polls show Bush is opening up his lead in Ohio and nationwide. The reasons are many, he said, including the success of the Republican National Convention followed by the Sept. 11 commemorative ceremonies, and Kerry's failure to stick to one message.
"But the lead could change in the next few weeks," he said. "Bush's lead is small in Ohio, but it's real, and it's no longer within the margin of error."
Reese said the Republicans have the advantage now, but he added the Democrats will grab the lead after the debates because of Kerry's superior oratory skills compared with Bush's.
skolnick@vindy.com