Disputes over voting raise fears of a 'Florida repeat'

Thousands of new voters have registered throughout the state.
KNIGHT RIDDER NEWSPAPERS
COLUMBUS -- As voting disputes mount in Ohio, a combination of factors in the battle for the presidency has the people of this swing state invoking the dreaded code word -- Florida -- as they worry about electoral chaos.
All the ingredients are there: an explosion of new voters, a partisan secretary of state feuding with a federal judge over rules, armies of lawyers ready to pounce on any flaw, no early voting to alleviate Election Day crowds and the prospect of a razor-thin margin in a state crucial to the Bush and Kerry campaigns.
And just to add to the Florida 2000 scenario, more than 70 percent of Ohioans still vote by punch card. Ohio could be the state that puts Sen. John Kerry or President Bush over the top, or leaves the winner in doubt.
"We're ground zero this year because of serious problems and what could be a very close race that determines the presidency," said Dan Tokaji, a professor at Ohio State University's law school and a voting rights advocate.
The likelihood of long lines at the polls and battles over whose votes will get cast and counted led state Sen. Mark Mallory, a Cincinnati Democrat, to warn: "This could easily be Florida, or exceed Florida -- I'm worried about unrest."
Biggest problem?
Ohio's biggest problem may be a messy dispute over provisional ballots. After thousands of Florida voters were turned away in 2000, the Help America Vote Act in 2002 mandated that states allow would-be voters -- voters who are told at a polling place they are not registered but insist they should be -- to cast provisional ballots and have their eligibility verified later.
Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell, a Republican who is state associate chair of the Bush-Cheney campaign, has interpreted that mandate strictly -- that a voter has to be in the correct precinct to have the vote count.
A federal judge in Toledo, James Carr, ruled against Blackwell, ordering that votes cast in the right county -- but wrong precinct -- should count. And, when the issue went to an appeals court, Carr chastised Blackwell for not giving instructions to local election officials on how to handle provisional ballots.
Blackwell "apparently seeks to accomplish the same result in Ohio in 2004 that occurred in Florida in 2000," the judge wrote.
Blackwell, who plans to run for governor in 2006, has called Carr "a left-wing judge" and insists that state and local officials are ready for the election.
"A lot of this is partisan jibber-jabber," said Blackwell, who bristles at any comparison to Katherine Harris, Florida's secretary of state during the 2000 recount battle.
"We are focused on making sure that every ballot that is legally cast is converted to a counted vote," he added in a TV interview.
Possible 'hanging chad'
The provisional ballot dispute could be the "hanging chad" of 2004 because so many new voters will be lining up at Ohio polls. Confusion and arguments over voter ID are inevitable.
The numbers are stunning. In Franklin County, home of state government in Columbus and Ohio State University, 124,000 new voters have been signed up. Officials in Cleveland and Cincinnati are reporting similar increases.
Many new voters were signed up hastily by activists on both sides of a polarized state that sees a presidential or vice presidential candidate every few days.
"I've never seen this level of intensity -- all the candidates, yard signs, activists in hand-to-hand combat," said Doug Preisse, GOP Franklin County chairman. He has been involved in politics since the 1970s.
Republican volunteers in the Columbus headquarters stuff envelopes under a motivational hand-drawn sign: "537 Votes! Ohio Could be This Year's Florida! Every Vote Counts!"
The margin between Bush and Kerry would not have to be as thin as Florida in 2000 to leave the winner in doubt and trigger litigation over votes.
In 2000, Al Gore lost Ohio by 167,000 votes, but many political observers expect the margin to be much closer this time. Four years ago, 98,000 provisional ballots were cast -- and that total is likely to increase substantially.
"If the number of provisional ballots is much greater than the margin, this could go to court," Tokaji said.
Lawyers in place
Both parties and campaigns have mobilized teams of lawyers ready to fight over any ballot in a tight race. Ohio law also allows "challengers," designated by each party, to monitor the voting and challenge the eligibility of any voter.
"There's a concern that both parties could abuse that statute, and you could tie up a polling place with a lot of challenges," Tokaji said.
Each side is being cagey about its legal strategy. Phyllis Bossin, a Kerry strategist in Cincinnati, said "we'll have enough lawyers to make sure people who are registered get to vote."
Republican lawyers arrived in Columbus last week, and one insurance company lobbyist said he will be monitoring the opening of absentee ballots for the GOP on election night.
Another element of uncertainty in Ohio is the last go-round for punch cards. Blackwell warned state legislators that they risked a "Florida-like calamity" if they didn't move toward electronic voting, but that won't happen until 2006.
A computer analysis by The Columbus Dispatch this month found that 82,000 punch-card ballots were not counted in 2000, and that the error rate was disproportionately higher in minority precincts.
But even some Democrats such as Mallory give Blackwell's office good marks for a public education campaign to help voters deal with the punch cards.
Blackwell also says that Ohio's rules for recounts and determining voter intent on ballots are better than Florida's were in 2000, and they are standardized across the state.
He vowed there will not be a "Florida repeat" in Ohio but conceded that if the margin is close, "neither side will concede defeat until the last dog dies."