Bush leads in battleground states

The president's job-approval rating is below 50 percent in Ohio and New Hampshire.
KNIGHT RIDDER NEWSPAPERS
WASHINGTON -- President Bush leads in all of the battleground states he carried in 2000, but he faces a tightening contest to repeat his wins in Ohio and New Hampshire, according to a new Knight Ridder-MSNBC poll released Wednesday.
Less than two weeks before Election Day, the survey offered a detailed look at the shifting state-by-state battleground where the presidency will be decided. If Bush holds all the battleground states he won in 2000 -- labeled red states for their color-coding on election maps -- he will win re-election. If he loses red states with 10 electoral votes or more, he has to win away blue states carried by Democrat Al Gore four years ago.
Bush leads in seven states that he carried closely in 2000. In Missouri, he led 49 percent to 44 percent. In West Virginia, he also led 49 percent to 44 percent. In Colorado, he led 49 percent to 43 percent. And in Nevada, Bush led 52 percent to 42 percent.
But Bush leads Sen. John Kerry in Ohio by only 46 percent to 45 percent, a statistically insignificant margin that means the race is effectively a dead heat. It's a much tighter race there than it was in mid-September, before the presidential debates, when Bush led by 7 percentage points.
In both Florida and New Hampshire, the Republican incumbent leads the Democratic senator 48 percent to 45 percent, a 3-point edge that leaves the race in those states within the poll's margin of error and makes them toss-ups. In September, Bush led in New Hampshire by 9 percentage points and in Florida by 4 percentage points.
Job approval
In another sign that suggests Bush doesn't have his base states wrapped up, less than a majority of likely voters in Ohio and New Hampshire believe Bush is doing a good job as president. His job-approval rating was 49 percent in New Hampshire and 47 percent in Ohio, but it was 50 percent or above in Colorado, Missouri and West Virginia.
Some analysts say that whenever an incumbent president's job-approval rating is below 50 percent, he's unlikely to win a majority of votes.
The poll of between 625 and 630 likely voters in each state was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & amp; Research from Oct. 14-16, after the three presidential debates, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The Nevada poll was conducted in conjunction with the Las Vegas Review-Journal and Review-Journal.com. The Florida poll, released Tuesday, was conducted by Mason-Dixon for a consortium of Florida news outlets including The Miami Herald. It included the same margin of error.
"Bush's red-state base is not completely secure," said Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker. "In several of these states he appears to have the edge, particularly Colorado, Missouri, Nevada and West Virginia. But in Florida, New Hampshire and Ohio, he still faces a tough race."
Indeed, one of the most telling signs that Bush still faces a challenge in his own base states is that he hasn't yet won over a majority of likely voters in any of the states except Nevada. At least 6 percent of likely voters remain undecided in each state -- and history suggests that a majority of them could decide in the end to vote against an incumbent they already know and can't bring themselves to support.
Issues
While some analysts focus most on an incumbent's job-approval rating, others, such as Democratic pollster Fred Yang, believe the question of war could trump job approval this time. Yang suggested Wednesday that some voters might give Bush low marks for his job performance based on domestic complaints about the economy or health care but still vote for him on larger questions of war or national security.
"This is not a typical election year, and I think [voters] are separating his regular job from Iraq," Yang said.
The poll shows that war and national security are the major reasons for Bush's lead in the red states. Voters in all of the states ranked terrorism and homeland security as their top concern. A majority in each state said either man would be equally effective in preventing terrorist attacks. But among those who did think safety from terrorism would vary depending upon who is president, Bush was chosen by a 3-1 margin.