HOW HE SEES IT Putin may double-cross EU on global warming
By BONNER R. COHEN
KNIGHT RIDDER/TRIBUNE
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Any attempt to discern Vladimir Putin's real motives inevitably forces one to consider Winston Churchill's famous pre-World War II remark that Russia is "a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma."
At first blush, Churchill's observation would seem to be the only explanation for Putin's sudden embrace of the Kyoto treaty on global warming despite warnings from his key advisers that to do so would spell economic disaster. The draconian cutbacks in future energy consumption mandated by Kyoto certainly would thwart Russia's lofty goal of doubling its Gross National Product by the end of this decade.
While Putin's decision has received enthusiastic applause from the global environmental community, it also has touched off widespread speculation about his motives.
Questions
Did he react to a combination of relentless pressure and outright bribes from the United Kingdom, France and Germany -- Kyoto's most ardent supporters in the European Union?
Was he seeking to avert Western eyes from Russia's ruthless war against Islamic fundamentalists in Chechnya and other nations along its far-flung southern borders?
Was he promised favored visa status for Russian citizens traveling to Western Europe or expedited action on Russia's pending membership in the World Trade Organization?
Those are just a few of the questions pundits here and abroad are posing in the wake of recent reports that Russia is ready to sign on Kyoto's dotted line.
But anyone who has followed Putin's rapid ascent through the ranks of KGB to the throne room of the Kremlin will search for another explanation.
The wily former spymaster may well be setting Kyoto's proponents up for one of history's grandest double-crosses by signing the treaty and grabbing the billions of dollars in promised payoffs with no intention of ever living up to its terms.
After all, the only way for the European Union or the United Nations to really determine if Russia is complying with Kyoto is to site thousands of monitors on the ground in a vast territory that spans six time zones -- or to rely on Russian self-certification.
The first option is not likely to be granted by the xenophobic Russians, while the statistics generated by the second are likely to be doctored beyond all credibility.
No one in his right mind thinks that Putin is stupid enough to actually believe that Russia will gain real benefits by scrupulously observing Kyoto's guidelines.
Indeed, his own economic adviser, Andrei Illarionov, frequently has noted that Kyoto would "result in an economic holocaust for Russia." Illarionov calls the treaty a "broad-based assault" on economic growth, the environment and on "human civilization itself."
United States
If Russia cynically proceeds to ratify Kyoto, however, the treaty would go into effect in signatory nations -- an action that undoubtedly would have severe economic ramifications for the United States.
Although the United States backed away from the agreement after the Senate passed a rejecting resolution by a 95-0 vote in 1997, European Union nations would like nothing better than to enforce its terms on U.S. multinationals doing business abroad.
American corporations have an estimated 12,000 factories abroad, according to Bank of America economist Joseph Quinlan, and more than half are based in the EU, Canada and Japan, which already have ratified Kyoto.
By imposing higher costs and lower profits on U.S. enterprises overseas, America's chief trading rivals could put the brakes on our full-throttle economic recovery.
Relenting and signing the Kyoto treaty is not a viable option for either President Bush or a potential President Kerry. The treaty's term would force the United States to pare greenhouse gas emissions by some 30 percent below 1990 levels -- an action that would plunge the economy into a prolonged and deep recession.
Recent studies by government and private sector economists show Kyoto would throw millions of Americans out of work, and cost the typical family here up to $3,600 a year in lost income. American motorists would pay through the hose at filling stations as already high energy prices soar an additional 30 to 86 percent.
By conforming to Kyoto's stringent terms, the U.S. Gross Domestic Product -- the value of all goods and services produced -- would have to shrink by $225 billion to $440 billion annually. That would quickly erase all of the benefits that flowed from Bush's 10-year, $1.8 trillion tax cut -- and then some. As the astute economics columnist Tom Bray recently observed, Europe's harsh criticism of U.S. inaction on global warming stems more from vested financial interest than enlightened concern for the environment.
Quotable
"Any rollback in emissions necessarily would throw some very large grains of sand in the gears of the U.S. economy, the biggest energy user in the world," Bray noted earlier this month. That would permit Europe's moribund socialist economies to regain worldwide competitiveness without enduring the political pain of rolling back government handouts.
And it would allow Russia's dynamic brand of state capitalism to move forward at the expense of U.S. workers. If a Russian double-cross is imminent, Putin, alone among the world's leaders, will have found a way to milk Kyoto for his own benefit.
XCohen is an adjunct fellow with the National Center for Public Policy Research, a conservative think-tank that promotes free-market approaches to policy issues. Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune Information Services