PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION Must-win Ohio shows close race

Southeast Ohio is considered a wild card.
SPRINGFIELD, Ohio (AP) -- Chatter about President Bush and Democrat John Kerry was going strong above the whir of spin cycles at the Soapbox laundry, the debate reflecting the presidential race in a must-win state for both candidates.
"I'm all for Kerry. I think he'll do better on the war," cashier Janet Collins said from behind her counter.
Waiting for her clothes to dry, Rhonda Burke remarked: "I'm sticking with Bush. Four years hasn't been enough time for him to prove what he can do about jobs."
Joe Dibert piped up as he headed for the door: "I'm back and forth. I'm watching both sides. I'm going to vote for whoever is the best man for the job."
Back and forth
So it goes in a state where the lead in polls has shifted from Kerry to Bush and back several times this year as voters focus on developments in the Iraq war and the economy.
The two campaigns have made Ohio ground zero for just about everything from staff to candidate visits (19 for Kerry, 27 for Bush) to advertising. The candidates and their parties combined have each spent $18 million here since March.
"It's still wide open," said Paul Beck, a political scientist at Ohio State University. "Ohio is a state that Kerry really needs to win and so does Bush -- again."
Bush captured Ohio by 3.6 percentage points four years ago after Al Gore largely conceded the state, diverting money and staff elsewhere. This year, Kerry's team sees Ohio -- and its 20 electoral votes -- as one of his best chances for upending the Republican incumbent.
Jobs lost
Unemployment has risen from 3.9 percent to 5.9 percent and 237,400 jobs have been lost on Bush's watch. Ohioans also have seen 38 of their sons and daughters die in Iraq. One soldier has been captured.
The Democratic senator's advisers say they will fight for Ohio until the end. They have little choice: Mathematically and historically, there's a slim chance that Kerry will win the White House if he doesn't win Ohio.
To reach the 270 electoral votes needed for victory, Kerry would have to pick up several other states that Bush won in 2000 while defending the states that went to Gore. Only two Democrats have won the presidency without Ohio since 1900 -- Roosevelt in 1944 and Kennedy in 1960.
Bush must triumph in Ohio, a state that every Republican who has been elected president has won, or face the difficult task of trying to make up for it by cobbling together victories in several other states. It could happen. He's making a play for several states that went to Gore.
Bush could be helped by a constitutional amendment on the Ohio ballot that would ban gay marriage -- an issue that could increase turnout among conservatives.
GOP control
Republicans control the governor's office, the Legislature and every statewide elected office, aside from the Ohio Supreme Court. But Ohio is a politically complex state.
The northeast, with Cleveland at its core, and part of the northwest, anchored by Toledo, are Democratic bastions filled with blue-collar workers in Rust Belt cities still smarting from decades of manufacturing job losses.
Bush country is on the opposite end, a southwest Ohio swath around Cincinnati and Dayton filled with wealthy voters in rapidly growing suburbs and in new far-flung communities dubbed "exurbs." Bush has made voters there a priority. The center of the state around Columbus leans Republican, but it's considered more of a swing area.
Southeast wild card
The wild card, Republicans and Democrats agree, is southeast Ohio.
The Appalachian region habitually has the highest unemployment. It's also a socially conservative area that supports gun rights, opposes abortion and is wary of gay rights.
Kerry's campaign has sent vice presidential candidate John Edwards, with his populist message, rural upbringing and soft drawl, to the area several times. Bush, too, has campaigned in the corner.
"Not a lot of people live down there, but in a real close election, they could be a factor," said John Green, a political scientist at the University of Akron.
Like the rest of the country, only a few voters in Ohio are undecided.
Springfield in Clark County, where Bush lost by 324 votes in 2000, is the epitome of a swing district.
In a restaurant over the remnants of egg-and-toast breakfast platters, retirees from the same insurance company bickered about the two candidates, the war, job losses, health care and the federal deficit. Nobody was too keen on Bush or his domestic policies, but they trusted him more than his Democratic challenger.
"You have to choose between the lesser of two evils," Norman James said with a shrug.
His buddy Lowell Shook added: "I'm still a little bit on the fence, but I'll probably vote for Bush. I just don't like Kerry."
The opposite side of town brought the opposite sentiment.
Economic factor
A couple of thirty-somethings -- eating cheese-slathered submarine sandwiches out of Styrofoam boxes in front of Lee Ann's Dairy Delight -- said they were voting for Kerry. But only because they don't like Bush. They say Bush chose to go to war instead of helping the economy.
"Why does he care about their cities and not our cities?" asked Daniel Hinton. "Kerry might not be the best candidate, but he can do better."
Nodding his head vigorously, Deveill Stephen Scott chimed in: "Bush is just making mistakes and he's not taking responsibility for them. Whose president are you going to be? The world's president or this country's president?"