HOW HE SEES IT Early pullout of Iraq best bad alternative

By JOHN B. QUIGLEY
KNIGHT RIDDER/TRIBUNE
COLUMBUS, Ohio -- President Bush cannot gain a victory that would allow him to withdraw U.S. troops from a peaceful Iraq by the mid-term elections. At this point, the major destabilizing factor in Iraq is the presence of the United States. We are the lightning rod that brings death and destruction on a daily basis.
The recent offensive in Fallujah resulted in the killing of some insurgents, and the relocation of others to other cities. Operations like this one may stem resistance in one locality, but they do not end it on a countrywide basis.
As the U.S. Army entered Fallujah, the interim Iraqi administration was attacked in other cities across the central part of Iraq.
In the run-up to the invasion, we relied on expatriates whose standing in Iraq was questionable. We relied on exile organizations, like that headed by Ahmad Chalabi that gave us bad information about Iraqi weaponry and about the political inclinations of the population.
Upon entering Iraq in 2003, we destroyed the existing structure of government in the name of eradicating the prior regime. We left Iraq with no military, no police force, no executive branch institutions. We did not bring in enough troops to ensure stability on a temporary basis.
As we set about to re-create institutions, we relied on exiles who had developed close ties to the United States. As a result, officials like interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi are viewed by many Iraqis as puppets.
Mass defections
New institutions have yet to get off the ground. As we entered Fallujah, the Iraqi security forces that were to accompany U.S. forces experienced mass defections. Compounding the problem, our own motives in Iraq are questioned by many Iraqis. Are we after the country's oil? If, as we say, we want democracy in the region, why do we support Israel to the detriment of the Palestinians?
Even though most Iraqis want stability in the country, they are ambivalent about institutions promoted by the United States.
We have tried to bring in the United Nations to pick up the pieces in Iraq. But U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan understands the contradictions in our approach to governance. He said we should not invade Fallujah because it would so incense the Sunni population of Iraq that they might boycott the anticipated elections. The chances of holding elections in the entire country in January remain slim. Annan is concerned about the safety of U.N. personnel, who are supposed to supervise the elections.
Chances are remote that we can bring about a situation of stability and progress in Iraq in the short term. Either we stay and try, probably to no result, to make the country a beacon of democracy, or we leave.
A pullout with no Iraqi government in place carries risks. The Sh'ia might take control to the detriment of the Sunni. The Kurds might try to separate. But with no good exit strategy available, an early pullout may be the least bad alternative.
X John B. Quigley is a professor of law at Ohio State University. Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune.