ANDRES OPPENHEIMER Chinese leader upstaging Bush

What irony! President Bush and Chinese President Hu Jintao will be visiting Latin America at the same time this week, but it is the Chinese leader who is promising up to $100 billion in investments, and grabbing the biggest headlines.
Bush leaves today for a visit to Chile for the summit of the Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum and will make a brief stop in Colombia on his way back. While Bush's trip will last four days, the Chinese leader will spend 12 days in the region, visiting four countries.
Hu, who is leading a delegation of nearly 200 Chinese government officials and business people, has spent five days in Brazil. He was ending a two-day tour in Argentina on Wednesday, will attend the APEC meeting in Chile this weekend, and then go to Cuba.
More important, judging from the headlines in Latin American newspapers, Hu's tour is likely to completely upstage Bush's visit. While Bush is expected to call for greater Latin American cooperation in the war on terrorism, Hu is doing what U.S. presidents used to do -- raising the region's hopes with massive trade and investment promises:
UIn Brazil, Hu signed 11 bilateral agreements, which officials said include plans for $10 billion in energy and transportation investments over the next two years, and will double Brazil's bilateral trade with China to $20 billion within the next three years. Among other things, China will purchase 10 Brazilian-made Embraer planes worth $200 million, invest in a joint $1 billion gas pipeline and add Brazil to its list of countries allowed to get Chinese tourists. In addition, China has promised to support Brazil's bid for a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council.
UIn Argentina, Hu signed five letters of intent, which -- if successful -- may result in Chinese investments worth $20 billion over the next 10 years, Argentine officials said. But well-placed officials note that the figure does not represent direct investments but "offers to discuss financing" for potential third-party investments. Among the financing projects under discussion are an $8 billion plan to expand Argentina's railway system, $6 billion for low-cost homes and other construction projects, and $5 billion for oil exploration.
UIn Chile, Hu is scheduled to sign a $2 billion investment deal with the Codelco state copper company for joint mining expansion projects, and is to discuss a possible Chile-China free-trade agreement.
Altogether, China hopes to invest $100 billion in the region by 2014, Brazil's daily, Folha de Sao Paulo, quoted Hu as saying in a Nov. 11 speech to the Brazilian Congress. While the Chinese president didn't say how he hopes to reach that figure, the prospect of a Chinese investment-fueled bonanza spread like wildfire in much of South America.
"There's no question that Hu Jintao is stealing the show," said Jorge Castro, head of the Institute of Strategic Planning, a private think tank in Argentina, referring to the two leaders' visits. "The main reason for this is the fundamental importance that China has acquired over the past two years as a key trading partner of Brazil, Argentina and Chile."
Indeed, China has turned almost overnight from a negligible market to Brazil's third-largest trading partner, and Argentina's fourth largest. Argentine-Chinese trade has grown by 300 percent over the past five years, thanks mainly to China's growing appetite for soybeans and other commodities.
Meanwhile, Bush's top Latin American initiative, a 34-country Free Trade Area of the Americas that was scheduled to be signed by the end of this year, is fizzling. Granted, five Central American and three Andean countries have either signed or are about to sign bilateral trade deals with Washington, but the U.S. plan for a hemisphere-wide trade agreement appears to be fading.
Are we moving to a Latin American geographic division between U.S.-dependent and China-dependent economies? Could be. Perhaps future generations in the southern tip of the hemisphere will find it hard to believe that once upon a time it was U.S. presidents who used to be seen as messengers of economic hope in the region.
X Andres Oppenheimer is a Latin America correspondent for the Miami Herald. Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune Information Services.