DAVID SKOLNICK | Politics Strickland looks strong for governor

U.S. Rep. Ted Strickland says he'll announce in late December whether he will seek the Democratic nomination to run for Ohio governor in 2006.
Let me save him the trouble. He'll run. He's the best candidate for the job among Democrats looking at the position.
Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman's name recognition is strong in Franklin County and surrounding counties, and he is considered a solid fund-raiser. But hardly anyone recognizes his name outside his home base.
Name recognition isn't an issue with another would-be gubernatorial candidate, Jerry Springer. But it certainly is a problem. The presidential election showed voters are concerned with a candidate's morals and faith. Spend five minutes watching Springer's show and you'll see his morals.
State Sen. Eric Fingerhut showed last week that he is not a viable statewide candidate, losing every county in his failed bid to beat U.S. Sen. George V. Voinovich.
As a former minister, Strickland's faith can't be questioned. Strickland, of Lisbon, D-6th, has decent name recognition throughout the state, and it's on the rise. He's been on the ballot in 20 of the state's 88 counties, won six congressional elections, and spent time campaigning with and stumping for the Democratic presidential ticket.
As for Strickland's viability as a candidate, Republicans in the 12 counties he currently represents couldn't find one person to challenge him.
Strickland's success has come in congressional districts that lean Republican, something rare for an Ohio Democrat.
Strickland lost congressional races in 1976, 1978 and 1980. But after a 12-year break, he defeated a six-term incumbent who was a staunch conservative by 1.6 percentage points in the old 6th District. That district included all or portions of 14 southern counties that are primarily small, rural, and conservative, with the exception of Athens, one of Ohio's most liberal counties.
Strickland lost in 1994 to a conservative challenger by 1.9 percentage points but came back in 1996 to beat the incumbent by 2.6 percentage points. That might not seem terribly impressive. But consider that President Clinton beat Republican Bob Dole by only 1 percentage point in the district in 1996; one of Dole's best showings in an Ohio congressional district.
Since then, it's been a cakewalk for Strickland. He beat Nancy Hollister, a former lieutenant governor and Marietta mayor, by 16 percentage points in 1998, winning 12 of the district's 14 counties. He beat his 2000 Republican challenger in 1998 by 16.8 percentage points.
When the 6th was redistricted to include all or portions of 12 counties for the 2002 election, Strickland beat former Columbiana County Commissioner Michael Halleck by 18.8 percentage points and won every county. The new 6th District included seven counties in which Strickland had never represented.
Of the 12 counties in the current 6th District, seven of them supported President Bush over Democrat John Kerry. Of the eight counties taken out of the 6th in the redistricting effort, all went to Bush, including three by at least a 2-to-1 margin.
Had Kerry won those 15 counties -- the seven he lost in the current 6th, and the eight in the old 6th -- by the margins he lost to Bush there, he would have won Ohio.
Turnout in 2006 will not be close to last week's presidential election. But Strickland has a proven track record in those traditionally Republican areas, something no other Democrat has.
Republican insiders admit among Democratic candidates interested in running for governor, Strickland is the strongest candidate.
While Democrats win big in Youngstown, Warren, Akron, Cleveland and Toledo, Strickland has never run in those cities. It is imperative for a Democratic candidate running statewide to succeed in those five cities. It will be up to organized labor, longtime Strickland supporters, to deliver votes for him there.
This is the Democrat's first legitimate shot at winning the governor's seat in years. Republicans will attack portions of Strickland's record including his opposition to the war in Iraq. But it will be tough to paint him as a Kerry liberal.
Strickland has an "A" grade from the National Rifle Association. His stance on abortion is mixed, but he voted to ban partial-birth abortions. He has been a vocal advocate for fair trade, seniors and veterans.