MIDDLE EAST Region faces end of Arafat's era: Will peace finally be possible?

The United States and Israel rejected Arafat as a peace partner.
CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR
JERUSALEM -- The Middle East and the international community are grappling solemnly with the prospect of a region minus Yasser Arafat, the man who has dominated Palestinian politics for the past 36 years.
But there are also expressions by some that the absence of Arafat, who is near death, could somehow reshuffle the deck of the stalled Middle East peace process and lead to a revival of negotiations, especially since both Israel and the United States cast the Palestinian leader as the main obstacle to peace.
The United States may also have a chance to reshape a conflict that has come to define Muslim frustrations with U.S. policy in the Middle East.
"This may open an opportunity to resume the negotiations," says Hala Mustafa, an analyst at the Al Ahram Center for Strategic and Political Studies in Cairo. But the picture is not at all simple. For there to be talks, Arafat's successor will first have to establish himself as the new Palestinian leader, a tall order by all accounts.
Getting back to road map
Israeli and Palestinian eyes will be turning to the Bush administration to see how it handles the Palestinian transition. If the moderate former prime minister, Mahmoud Abbas, emerges as the new leader and stabilizes his rule, says Yossi Alpher, former director of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, the United States should try to help him. "There will be a need for pressure on both sides in a much more serious way than we have seen in the past to get back to the road map," the international peace blueprint that calls for a viable Palestinian state alongside a secure Israel.
Arafat was rejected by the United States and Israel as a partner because of his alleged ties to terrorism and refusal to make reforms and crack down on armed groups. "With Arafat out of the picture, I think the U.S. will try to revive the road map," Mustafa said.
Gabi Sheffer, a Hebrew University political scientist, agrees. "There is now a possibility of a better atmosphere and further moves." But he stresses, in the near term Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is likely to adhere to his approach of unilateralism -- shunning a Palestinian partner until after his plan for withdrawal from the Gaza Strip is implemented. "Later on, Sharon might go ahead and probably implement some of the road map," he says.
Arafat's illness coincides with President Bush's election victory, and there were calls in the Arab world Thursday for the United States to relaunch peace talks at the start of the second Bush term. "We hope Bush will live up to his commitments, especially on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which will help everybody," said an official in the United Arab Emirates who asked not to be named.
Ahmed Qureia, the Palestinian prime minister and a possible successor, wrote to Bush that, "Your leadership for a second term provides an excellent opportunity. Now is the time for the U.S. to take a strong and more active lead in resolving the conflict."
Big question
But the big question in the view of the analysts is whether a successor to Arafat will be able to establish himself solidly as the new leader in a climate where lawlessness and localized rule by armed groups is already prevalent. If that fails, they say, prospects for moves toward peace are bleak.
"We cannot be sure the leaders of armed groups and Islamist groups will subject themselves to a new leader," says Mustafa. "If the new leadership is not strong enough, there will be disorder. If there is no strong leadership capable of unifying and dealing decisively with the security disorder, I think the whole scene will be one of turmoil."
"Hamas will expect more political power than before," she continued. "They will want to have a real say in Gaza issues at least. They could mobilize masses easily and could resort to armed action so they have to be put in the political calculations."
In the view of Palestinian analyst Said Ghazali, whether a successor will succeed will depend largely on Israeli policies. "The Palestinians and Israelis are at a crossroads. Going back to peace talks is possible if it is encouraged by Israel and the U.S.," he says.
To facilitate the stability of any succession, he says, Israel should stop military incursions in Palestinian areas and assassinations of Palestinian militants and ease its regimen of strictures of movement in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. "But is Israel willing to do this?" he asks.