VIDEOTAPE Bin Laden seeks to cast himself as statesman

The Al-Qaida chief's network -- and his mystique among Muslims -- continues to grow.
CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR
WASHINGTON -- The Bush administration has rarely voiced his name. Kerry's campaign has uttered it as often as possible.
But Osama bin Laden spoke for himself Friday in his first videotaped comments in more than two years. "Your security is not in the hands of Kerry or Bush or Al-Qaida," he said to Americans. "Your security is in your own hands."
Intelligence experts were struck by bin Laden's tone and by his appearance: No guerrilla garb, no rifle, no direct threats, or religious rhetoric of the past. Bin Laden was wearing a traditional Arab white robe and princely, gold-trimmed outer garment. With the fall of Saddam Hussein and the marginalization of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, "part of what bin Laden is trying to do is fill the vacuum of leadership in the Muslim world," says Bruce Hoffman, a RAND Corp. expert on terrorism. "Part of his game is to portray himself as a statesman."
Bin Laden's reappearance serves to remind Americans not only of his threat -- but of his elusiveness three years after Sept. 11. Why is he so hard to find?
Speculation
One Pakistani military commander now says the Al-Qaida leader has fled the mountainous areas between Pakistan and Afghanistan. There's speculation he may be hiding in Kashmir or in the cities of Pakistan -- where several key top lieutenants have been caught in the past year. But most experts say that the United States and Pakistan have no idea where he's holed up.
While bin Laden has been forced into hiding, effectively prevented from using cell phones, satellite phones, or the Internet, and many of his top echelon have been captured or killed, Al-Qaida's network continues to evolve and grow -- as does bin Laden's legacy and mystique in the Muslim world.
Government officials and terror experts say he's been extremely clever in the way he's honed his messages and staged attacks that emphasize his importance as the Muslim world's lone "hero" able to stand up to superpower United States, the country he asserts is out to humiliate and dominate the Muslim world. The latest tape -- an effort to cast himself as an elder statesman, not just a global jihadist -- may be the most politically sophisticated, and dangerous, say experts.
Never-changing theme
"Part of bin Laden's genius is staying on message," says a senior intelligence official. "It's the Americans, Americans, Americans." Bin Laden's messages, says the official, all focus on U.S foreign policy in six areas: "unqualified U.S. support for Israel; U.S. presence on the Arabian Peninsula; U.S. support for China, Russia, India, and others for oppressing Muslims; 'military occupation' of Muslim countries -- Saudi Arabia, Philippines, Yemen, Iraq and Afghanistan; U.S. ability to manipulate the price of Arabian oil; and U.S. support for Muslim tyrannies -- Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Egypt and Algeria. He's said the same ... thing since 1986 and hasn't changed a bit."
In this speech, bin Laden tries to clarify his thinking or reformulate it. For example, he says that if it were really freedom he hated -- as Bush has said -- he would have attacked Sweden, not the United States. "We fought you because we are free and because we want freedom for our nation. When you squander our security, we squander yours." He says that the genesis of the Sept. 11 attacks lies in 1982, when the United States aided Israeli attacks on Lebanon.
Threat not clear
CIA officials say there was no specific threat information on the current tape, but apparently they have only five minutes of the 18-minute tape. But they also say the threat may have come in another tape that was broadcast last week, purportedly by an anonymous American member of Al-Qaida. Both tapes were produced by the same Al-Qaida media office, As Sahab. The FBI and Department of Homeland Security are handling the "American" aspect of it, and have alerted law-enforcement officers across the country to try to help identify the individual.
"It's probably more important now than ever to get him [bin Laden]," says Hoffman. "We did say at the time [of the Sept. 11 attacks] that we wanted him dead or alive, and our words must have meaning -- someone can't do that without impunity."
But it's not easy to find him, intelligence officials and counterterrorism experts say. For one thing, he's practiced guerrilla warfare for more than 20 years in one of the most remote and inhospitable corners of the world. Bin Laden also has a groundswell of support in the Muslim world, not just among radical Islamists, but among the larger population, which probably helps him elude authorities.