DAVID SKOLNICK\Politics Ohio races weigh heavily on Kerry's performance

The 2004 presidential election is extremely important to Ohio Democrats, and not just because they want U.S. Sen. John Kerry in the White House and President Bush in the unemployment line.
As I wrote last week, it won't be easy for Kerry to win Ohio, but there's a lot more campaigning to be done before the November general election. Kerry's campaign needs to improve its organizational skills in Ohio, articulate the failures of Bush, and convince voters that the Democrat is a viable alternative to the Republican president, for him to win the state.
The main reason Ohio Democrats want Kerry to be successful in November is it would empower Democrats for the 2006 statewide election. It would give the party, which has been virtually irrelevant in state government for more than a decade, much needed credibility. That would translate into the ability to raise money and persuade strong candidates to run statewide.
The party was handed similar opportunities after Bill Clinton carried Ohio in both the 1992 and 1996 presidential elections, but Democrats failed to build on that.
In 2002, the Democrats fielded an embarrassing slate of candidates. The reasons for the weak slate were Bush won in 2000, Republicans control the state, had more money, and strong candidates. Also, Ohio Democrats showed no sign of political life or organization at the time, so the credible candidates opted not to be sacrificial lambs.
In 2006, Ohio residents will vote for a senator, a governor, an attorney general, an auditor, a secretary of state and a treasurer.
Because of the state's term limits law and the intention of three current officeholders to run for governor, all but one of those seats will be open. The exception is the U.S. Senate seat held by Mike DeWine, who plans to run for re-election and doesn't have to worry about term limits because U.S. senators are not subject to that law.
If Bush wins Ohio, particularly by a comfortable margin, expect a repeat of 2002. The best Democratic candidates will not run the risk of getting destroyed by Republicans.
But if Kerry can win, or at least keep the race close in Ohio, expect Democrats to concentrate on building on that momentum.
Also, the infighting among Republicans will help the Democratic cause. If Attorney General Jim Petro, Auditor Betty Montgomery and Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell stay in the gubernatorial race, the Republican Party will come out of the 2006 primary fractured and strapped for cash.
The problem with the Republicans isn't just the potential three-way showdown for governor.
Treasurer Joseph Deters wants to run for attorney general in 2006. But the former Hamilton County prosecutor could be damaged goods. A special prosecutor in Cuyahoga County is looking at the connection between Deters' office and a stockbroker who pleaded guilty to bribing an unidentified public servant or public official.
Some Republicans say Deters might not survive his own party's primary. In an interesting twist, Mike Allen, the current Hamilton County prosecutor, is considering a challenge to Deters in the primary.
The names that keep coming up as Democratic gubernatorial candidates are: U.S. Rep. Ted Strickland, Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman, trash talk show host Jerry Springer, and state Sen. Eric Fingerhut, who is challenging U.S. Sen. George Voinovich in November.
Springer will never be elected governor of this state. Never. Besides being too liberal for Ohio, his trash talk show kills the former Cincinnati mayor's political credibility. A show that features incest lovers, transvestites and cheating spouses doesn't make Springer very gubernatorial.
If Fingerhut gives Voinovich a run for his money and loses by only single digits, he could be a viable candidate. He is one of the brightest and most articulate members of the state Legislature -- if those attributes mean anything to voters.
That leaves Coleman and Strickland, both strong candidates. Coleman is the most visible mayor in the state, and Strickland has power bases in the Mahoning Valley, and more importantly, in eastern and southern Ohio, traditionally Republican strongholds. But if the Democrats have any chance of winning the gubernatorial race, the party must avoid a primary because it would drain their limited financial resources.
Ohio Democrats have a shot in 2006 only if Kerry does well in November, and/or the Republicans self-destruct with an ugly gubernatorial primary.