POLITICAL HORSE RACE Another President JFK? What are the odds?

The oddsmaker says the Democrat will win the general election.
By DAVID SKOLNICK
VINDICATOR POLITICS WRITER
YOUNGSTOWN -- Running for president of the United States is a gamble.
So Jackie Dell, who's been setting odds for sporting events and political races for more than 50 years, asks why not make a line on who will win the November general election race between President Bush and U.S. Sen. John F. Kerry, the presumptive Democratic nominee?
Dell, the pen name of Jack Delfre, says the smart money is on Kerry.
Dell, who splits his time between Youngstown and Las Vegas, doesn't condone betting on the presidential race. The only places to place bets on the presidential race is with Internet gambling sites or if your local bookie takes that action.
Dell, 75, says Kerry is a 9-5 favorite to win in November. That means you'd have to wager $9 to win $5. Bush's odds for re-election, Dell says, are 5-7, meaning you'd have to wager $5 to win $7.
"The public is starting to have questions about Bush," Dell said. "People don't have the faith and trust in President Bush and [Vice President Dick] Cheney."
Kerry is a favorite more because there is an anti-Bush sentiment rather than because of his own popularity, Dell said.
How he sets odds
Dell speaks to county and state party chairmen and chairwomen nationwide to gauge the popularity of the candidates, and could update his odds if he sees a shift.
Dell's odds are opposite to what you would see at a horse racetrack. At the track, Kerry's odds would be 5-9, making him an overwhelming favorite. Dell says he and other oddsmakers set odds this way because it's easier to understand.
A check of more than a dozen Internet gambling sites that accept bets on the presidential election show Dell is in the minority. Except for bodog.com, every other Web site has Bush as the favorite to win the November election.
Made news in '92
Dell, who sets betting lines as a hobby, rose to national prominence as a presidential oddsmaker in 1992 when he made Bill Clinton a heavy 4-1 favorite -- or 1-4 if the former Arkansas governor were a thoroughbred -- to unseat then-President George H.W. Bush. The line was picked up by The Associated Press, and carried in dozens of newspapers.
Dell made Clinton a heavy favorite in 1996, and had Al Gore winning the 2000 election. Even though Bush defeated Gore, Dell contends Gore won the popular vote and questions the legitimacy of the Florida recount.
"I never, never took action on politics, but I can make odds on anything," he said.
Dell, who grew up on Youngstown's East Side, got interested in setting betting lines on sports, particularly college basketball, after getting out of the Army in 1950.
"I wondered how to do it so I learned," he said. "I was curious because I used to gamble as a teen."
Dell's specialty is college basketball. He studies the statistics of the starting lineups, evaluates defense, and matches players by positions before establishing a point spread. Upsets naturally happen, but Dell said his system is consistently successful.
Where he's been published
Dell's odds were first published about 35 years ago in the Niles Times, and over the years have been published in numerous newspapers including The Vindicator, the Las Vegas Tribune, and the Las Vegas Sporting News. He was also a featured guest in 2000 on the online Web show "Political Points," which was co-sponsored by ABC-TV news and The New York Times.
Dell got interested in setting lines for political races in the 1960s and was recognized in the Congressional Record in October 1988 by then-U.S. Rep. James A. Traficant Jr. for his success in predicting political races.
"In 1986, Jackie Dell correctly predicted five of the five winners in local races in my district, some of which were upsets," Traficant included in the Congressional Record. "He even predicted my upset victory in 1984 over the incumbent Republican whose House seat I now hold."
As for gambling, Dell doesn't bet on sporting events.
"It's a superstition of mine," he said. "When I bet, I lose."
skolnick@vindy.com