DAVID SKOLNICK \ Politics A daunting task awaits Kerry in the Buckeye State

Despite the rhetoric, the fate of the presidential election doesn't rest in the hands of Mahoning Valley voters.
If it did, U.S. Sen. John Kerry, the presumptive Democratic nominee, could be in trouble.
Many political experts contend Ohio is a battleground state, and Kerry and President Bush campaign officials don't dispute that.
Even though Republicans dominate state government, there are signs that their stranglehold over Ohio is beginning to weaken, mostly because of infighting.
Also, Kerry supporters say Bush beat Democrat Al Gore by about 3.6 percent in 2000 even though the former vice president essentially abandoned Ohio to concentrate on other states, most notably Florida. We all know how well that strategy worked.
If Kerry and his supporters expect to win Ohio by obtaining at least 65 percent of the vote in Mahoning and Trumbull counties, two Democratic strongholds, and turnout to be at least 60 percent in those two counties, they might be disappointed.
They're banking on that in many Northeast Ohio counties but are focused primarily on Mahoning, Trumbull and Cuyahoga.
History shows the strategy is flawed.
In 2000, Gore came close to those goals in the Valley.
Gore got 61 percent of the Mahoning vote, and turnout in the county was 64.2 percent. In Trumbull, Gore got 60 percent of the vote, and turnout was 66.3 percent.
Still it wasn't enough to beat Bush.
Compare that with 1996, when President Clinton defeated Republican Bob Dole nationwide and won Ohio by 6 percent. Admittedly, the circumstances were different; Gore was running for an open seat while Clinton was running for re-election.
Clinton got 61.5 percent of the Mahoning vote, and turnout in the county was 70.4 percent. In Trumbull, Clinton got 58.7 percent of the vote, and turnout was 65.1 percent.
Clinton in 1996 got 0.5 percent more of the vote in Mahoning than Gore with a bit better turnout than Gore in 2000. But Gore did better than Clinton in Trumbull in both categories and still lost.
What this shows is the 65 percent vote and 60 percent turnout expectations in the Valley aren't going to mean much if Kerry doesn't thrive in other areas of the state.
For Kerry to win Ohio, his goal should be at least 70 percent of the Valley vote with 70 percent turnout, expectations that cannot be reached. There's serious doubt he can reach the 65 percent vote goal.
Kerry's biggest problem in the Valley is his support isn't strong. That was clearly shown by his weak performance in the March Democratic primary.
Kerry got only 51.3 percent of the Mahoning County vote even though he was clearly the front-runner nationwide, and he and his wife had made personal appearances in the Valley in the weeks leading up to the primary.
It was even worse in Trumbull County. Kerry lost that county by 1 percent to U.S. Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, who withdrew as a presidential candidate that night and was running a struggling campaign at the time. In all fairness, it should be noted that Edwards also visited the Valley before the primary.
His primary showing is probably why Kerry returned to the Valley last week, making his second appearance here in two months. He needs to energize hard-core Democrats and get them excited about his campaign and to vote in November for him.
But Kerry's appearance last week revealed a campaign that may be in trouble. Election Day isn't for another six months, and most people aren't thinking about the presidential race at this point.
Kerry's campaign expected about 1,000 people at the downtown Youngstown event, a number they reached. However, that expectation was very low.
Also, it should be noted that if you subtracted high school students -- many of would have chosen to do anything outside, even a political rally on a cool and occasionally rainy day, rather than go to school -- and local union members and politicians looking to hobnob with a presidential candidate, and that number would have been cut at least in half.
There is no doubt that Kerry will win Mahoning and Trumbull counties on Election Day by comfortable margins, and I don't disagree with the thought that he needs to come back here to energize the party faithful. Kerry also needs to get to the rest of the state and convince undecided voters or those who went with Bush in 2000 and are having second thoughts that he is a viable alternative.
If Kerry is to win Ohio in November and have a chance to become president, he has to win the state. But he and his campaign staff have a lot more work to do.