Iraq must choose the right leader

As the political season heats up, it's time for a rundown of the candidates -- in Iraq.
On June 30, the United States will turn over sovereignty to an Iraqi government. No one yet knows, amazingly, who will be part of that government. Desperate U.S. officials, unable to agree on its makeup, turned the job over to special United Nations envoy Lakhdar Brahimi.
The quality of that government may determine whether America's Iraq project succeeds or fails.
I say this even though:
UThe new government will be temporary, its main job to prepare for elections in January 2005.
UIt will be selected by Brahimi and occupation czar Paul Bremer.
UIt will depend for security on 135,000 U.S. troops, and the world's biggest U.S. Embassy.
Despite these caveats, this government provides Iraq's best, slim hope for finding some stability. Until now, Iraqis have had no leaders whom they could respect, who could tell them where their country was headed. They had no leaders who could argue compellingly that insurgents were threatening Iraq's future.
The occupation authority, and the Iraqi Interim Governing Council it set up, were sequestered from the public within the bubble of Saddam's former palace. Some council members stand accused of corruption. Burdened with a rotating presidency, the council couldn't lead.
Early elections would have been the best way to channel Iraqi anger away from the frustrations of occupation. But U.S. officials pushed elections back out of fear that they could not control the results.
So Brahimi's challenge is to produce a government that can lead Iraqis to elections. Lack of full sovereignty will not be its biggest problem; indeed, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who speaks for many of the majority Shiites, specified that its powers "should be limited" because it is unelected.
The real question is whether this government will be able to rally Iraqis.
Brahimi wants to disband the IGC and find Iraqis with "credibility, honesty and expertise" who "are acceptable to the Iraqi people." The most important figure will be the new prime minister.
That prime minister, says well-known Iraqi democracy activist Laith Kubba, "must have integrity. He must have national appeal and charisma, and must be seen moving around the country, building faith. The prime minister must sell the hope and the vision." If this government fails, says Kubba, "the post 6/30 vacuum will be filled by militias with guns."
So is there a candidate who fits the bill?
One thing is sure: The candidate will come from the Shiite majority.
Technocrat
Some argue that the prime minister should be a technocrat, not a politician. Others call for a politician who can inspire his countrymen at this crucial moment. Such a politician could avoid partisanship by promising not to run in elections.
Here are a couple of possible names.
Not included is Ahmed Chalabi, the Pentagon's favorite, who has little popularity within Iraq. Or the CIA's favorite, council member Iyad Allawi, who is tainted by past Baathist ties.
One name is Adel Abdel-Mehdi, a top leader of the Shiite party known as SCIRI (Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq). He has a reputation for honesty and efficiency as a de facto member of the governing council. In long conversations with him in Baghdad last year, I found him a religious moderate with a clear vision of a democratic Iraq.
Another strong candidate: Council member Ibrahim al-Jaafari, a physician who represents the Islamic Dawa party on the governing council. This Shiite party commands wide respect because it remained underground and resisted Saddam throughout the dictator's rule. Perhaps that's why a recent ABC poll showed that among all political figures listed, Jaafari had the highest trust factor (and Chalabi the lowest). He also has a clean reputation.
Whoever gets the prime minister's post must be a unifier, a man who elicits respect and has the strength to tell U.S. officials what they need to hear.
The Iraqi political process makes ours look like a picnic, doesn't it? But its success or failure may determine our election results.
XRubin is a columnist and editorial-board member for the Philadelphia Inquirer. Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune Information Services.