Kerry seeks to energize supporters early in race

Turnout for Kerry in the Valley must be strong for him to win Ohio.
& lt;a href=mailto:skolnick@vindy.com & gt;By DAVID SKOLNICK & lt;/a & gt;
VINDICATOR POLITICS WRITER
YOUNGSTOWN -- It's no accident that U.S. Sen. John Kerry, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, visited the Mahoning Valley twice in two months.
Kerry is traveling to traditionally strong Democratic areas, such as the Valley, during the early part of the campaign to energize his supporters, and then the campaign will move to swing regions up for grabs, said Kathy Roeder, a campaign spokeswoman.
"That's the strategy in a nutshell," she said. "He is traveling to Democratic cities to show the voters who he is. Then he'll go to other areas. Sen. Kerry believes he can give voters who last time voted for [President] Bush a better reason to vote for him."
Political analysts say visiting the Valley early in the campaign is solid strategy for Kerry. Kerry spoke to a crowd last week at a rally in downtown Youngstown. He visited Struthers in February.
"By coming to Youngstown, he's helping himself in Ohio," said John Green, director of the University of Akron's Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics.
"But he's helping himself elsewhere too. Because of TV and the news media, people will see and read that he was at a rally with enthusiastic supporters, and it will energize people in places like Milwaukee, Philadelphia and New York City."
About 2000 campaign
In 2000, Al Gore, the Democratic nominee, visited Youngstown and Warren a month before the election. But he essentially abandoned Ohio in the final few weeks of the campaign to concentrate on other states, most notably Florida.
The Valley delivered for Gore, who lost Ohio by less than 4 percent, to a certain extent. Gore got 61 percent of the vote in Mahoning and 60 percent in Trumbull, the second- and third-highest margins of victory, respectively, for him of any counties in the state.
But Ohio Democratic officials said at the time they were disappointed with the results from the Valley, hoping for closer to 70 percent of the vote.
Also, Paul Sracic, a Youngstown State University political science professor, points out that Gore got about 7,000 fewer votes in the Valley than President Clinton did when he was re-elected in 1996.
Kerry isn't making the mistake of ignoring the Valley, Sracic said, particularly because most political experts believe Ohio will be a key battleground state in the 2004 presidential election. A recent state poll has the Bush-Kerry race as a dead heat.
"Right now, you're seeing John Kerry looking for a choir to preach to," said Kevin Madden, a Bush-Cheney campaign spokesman. "It's going to be a hard race in Ohio. Like the country, Ohio is closely divided. People are searching for answers as to what direction the country is heading. It will be a tight race, but it will come down to the records of both candidates, and the president's record is stronger than John Kerry's."
What's needed to win
Political analysts said Kerry needs at least 65 percent of the vote in Mahoning and Trumbull counties, and strong turnout here, to win in Ohio.
Lisa Antonini, Mahoning County Democratic Party chairwoman, agrees that Kerry needs at least 65 percent of the vote in the two counties, and turnout of at least 60 percent.
"If turnout is 50 percent, we don't deliver to him," she said. "He told me that he wants to come back here. This area is a focus for his campaign. It's on the map for them and it's been circled."
Melanie Blumberg of Boardman, a political science professor from California University in Pennsylvania, said turnout needs to be high in the Valley, and the presidential race is going to have to be the draw. That's because there aren't any local races, except for Mahoning County Juvenile Court judge, that will attract voters to the polls, she said.
"With the low turnout [at last week's rally], Kerry's not energizing anybody," she said.
Mark Munroe, Mahoning County Republican Party vice chairman, is conceding the Democratic-dominated county to Kerry. But the goal is to minimize the damage, he said.
"If we can hold him to 60 percent [in Mahoning County], then George Bush will remain president," Munroe said.
Bush campaign officials also realize this, he said.
"I've been in politics for 25 to 30 years and I've never seen what Bush-Cheney is doing this year," Munroe said. "We've had a phone bank operating since March to recruit Bush volunteers. We've got 400 volunteers. In 2000, there was no specific program in the county to recruit Bush volunteers."
Bush supporters are holding get-togethers and small rallies to draw attention to the president in the Valley. Also, Mahoning and Trumbull Republican officials are putting together a proposal to get Bush to visit the Valley, Munroe said. Bush is touring four Ohio cities Tuesday.
Dr. William Binning, YSU political science department chairman and a former Mahoning Republican chairman, said Bush's coming to the Valley may not be a good idea. Bush visited Youngstown in 2000 immediately after the Republican National Convention.
"It's enemy territory," Binning said. "That's a tough call. It could backfire. It could stir up the Democratic faithful. There's not a large potential Republican vote here."