CENSUS Valleys see population decline

Mahoning County lost 2.1 percent of its population.
By DAVID SKOLNICK
VINDICATOR STAFF WRITER
YOUNGSTOWN -- The modest overall population growth in Ohio and Pennsylvania has nothing to do with the Mahoning and Shenango valleys.
While the two states each saw a population increase by 0.7 percent between 2000 and 2003, according to estimated figures released by the U.S. Census Bureau, the five area counties saw declines during the same time frame.
Mahoning County saw a 2.1 percent decline in its population, according to the census.
Trumbull County lost 1.4 percent of its population, Lawrence County's population declined by 1.3 percent, and Columbiana and Mercer counties saw marginal population losses of less than 0.5 percent each.
Prediction
The trend will continue, said Warren Mayor Michael J. O'Brien and Jim Shanahan, senior research associate at Youngstown State University's Center for Urban and Regional Studies.
"Job growth in this area isn't strong enough or sufficient," Shanahan said. "The opportunities related to jobs and income just aren't here. Our projected job growth is slower than other areas. If it wasn't for the increase in the number of local residents who travel outside the area to work, the decline would be even worse."
Most of the population declines in the five-county area are in the largest cities. For example, Youngstown's and Warren's populations declined by 3 percent each. In comparison, Cincinnati's population dropped by 1.5 percent, Cleveland's dropped by 1.1 percent, and Akron's declined by 0.7 percent.
Youngstown Mayor George M. McKelvey declined to comment on the decrease without first looking at the census numbers.
Weak economy
O'Brien said the area's weak economy is the reason for the population decline.
"Our economy has not sprung back like other communities throughout the country," he said. "When our children go away to college, we have to urge them to come back. They'll come back if there are job opportunities in this area. Job opportunities are the key. Until we can turn around that, we'll continue to see losses."
The decline in New Castle, Pa., was 3.5 percent, and the decline in Sharon, Pa., was 3.3 percent. East Liverpool lost 3.7 percent of its population, and Salem lost 2.6 percent of its population.
The lone exception was Hermitage, Pa., which saw its population increase by 2 percent.
The population loss isn't exclusive to the five counties' largest cities. Suburban communities such as Austintown, Boardman, Canfield Township, Poland Township, Liberty, Howland and Cortland experienced population losses, according to the 2003 updated census.
Modest growth
Most of the growth in the area is in rural townships, but it is extremely modest.
For example, nine townships in Mahoning County experienced growth with none adding more than 160 people from 2000 to 2003.
In Trumbull County, 16 townships and villages increased their population, and none of them added more than 120 residents during the three-year period.
The U.S. Census Bureau estimated the populations of the nation's nearly 20,000 incorporated places in 2003 using a system based on housing unit estimates, including building permits and housing losses.
The United States' population increased by 3.3 percent from 2000 to 2003.
skolnick@vindy.com