OHIO POLITICS 2006 will be messy for GOP

Infighting and scandals will hurt the party in 2006, an official says.
By DAVID SKOLNICK
VINDICATOR POLITICS WRITER
YOUNGSTOWN -- He's concentrating on making sure President Bush wins Ohio in November, but the state's Republican chairman realizes he's got a big problem on the horizon.
"It's a headache waiting to happen," said GOP Chairman Robert Bennett. "I'm not going to worry about it now. I'll start worrying about it in January."
Bennett is referring to the 2006 election. Attorney General Jim Petro, Auditor Betty Montgomery and Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell plan to run for governor in two years.
Bennett is well-known for finding ways to avoid messy and expensive Republican primaries for statewide office. But the three candidates say they have no intention of withdrawing from the race.
"We're in the war-dance stage right now before we go to battle, and it will increase between November and the fall of 2005," Bennett said. "But things sort themselves out."
Pointing out problems
Ohio Democratic Chairman Dennis White said Bennett has a mess on his hands, and not only at the top of the 2006 ticket.
White points to criminal investigations involving the Ohio House Republican caucus' campaign committee, overseen by House Speaker Larry Householder, and the office of Treasurer Joseph T. Deters, both Republicans planning to run statewide in 2006.
White said he wouldn't be surprised to see a number of Republicans eyeing statewide bids to be in prison before the 2006 election.
"Their party is divided, and all these scandals are going to hurt them," White said. "Unless they're going to do their get-out-to-vote from federal prisons, they're not going to do well statewide in 2006. [Bennett] deserves better than what the party's elected officials are giving him. It's really sad. I just thank them for the gift."
Republicans have controlled state government since 1990.
A number of Democrats are interested in running in 2006 for statewide offices, he said. White could face a problem similar to Bennett's, as there are several Democrats interested in running for governor, including U.S. Rep. Ted Strickland of Lisbon, Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman and talk-show host Jerry Springer.
"Democrats are interested in running because of the Republican scandals, and our ability in the past two years to build a farm team of major-city mayors, congressional people and county officials," White said.
Concerned
Bennett said he is concerned about the investigations.
"It's an embarrassment to the people, and it's a concern for the party," he said. "It's premature to make a decision now. There's always allegations in the political world. We've done a good job cleaning up our house. If someone is convicted, we ask them to step down. If they don't, we work to take them out in a primary."
Asked to pick which gubernatorial candidate has the most momentum right now, Bennett mentioned Blackwell. But the chairman said it changes almost monthly.
"Nobody's got it locked down; it shifts," he said. "They all have their strengths and weaknesses."
Focusing on Bush
Bennett has a few months to worry about the three-way race, and its potential to fracture the party. Right now, Bennett is working to get Bush re-elected, and for the president to carry Ohio, as he did in 2000.
Bennett admits Bush can't win Mahoning and Trumbull, two of the state's most Democratic counties. His goal is to keep U.S. Sen. John Kerry, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, in check in Northeast Ohio.
"If we get 42 percent of the vote in Mahoning County, we'll be doing fine," Bennett said. "But I expect we'll do better. We're expecting about that percentage in Trumbull County, too."
White doesn't have a prediction on how large Kerry's victory will be in Northeast Ohio but says it will be huge.
"I think the Republicans are dreaming" with the 42 percent projection in Mahoning, he said. "How does Bush's number go up? Bush has a terrible track record that he didn't have in 2000. I don't think he gets double digits [in the Mahoning Valley] unless people are totally incoherent as to what's going on around them."
In 2000, Bush received 34.6 percent of the Mahoning vote, and 35.2 percent of the Trumbull vote against Democrat Al Gore. Even so, Bush beat Gore, who essentially abandoned Ohio in the final weeks of the campaign, by about 3.6 percent in the state.
White said Kerry will run stronger than Gore in Ohio because of "Bush's disastrous record. He didn't have the record he has now when he ran the first time."
Stepping down
Chairman since 1988, Bennett plans to retire after the 2006 general election. Bennett listed David Johnson, the former Columbiana County GOP chairman, on a short list of possible successors. Johnson is a state central committeeman and one of the party's most prominent fund-raisers.
"He'd be an ideal person for chair," Bennett said.
Other candidates, Bennett said, are Summit County Chairman Alex Arshinkoff, Franklin County Chairman Doug Preisse and state Sen. Jeff Jacobson of Dayton, the Senate's majority leader next year.
skolnick@vindy.com