TRUDY RUBIN For Allawi to deliver, U.S. needs new plan

Monday's sad turn-over of sovereignty in Iraq -- held two days early to foil terrorists -- provided bad news and good news.
The bad news was that the event had to be held in secret in the fortified, U.S.-controlled area known as the Green Zone. This was the only way to ward off suicide bombs or attempted assassinations.
The good news is that the new Iraqi government, headed by Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, draws favorable ratings from 68 percent of the population. This is true even though his government was appointed, and even though Allawi has longtime CIA connections. These links help solidify his popular image as a "tough guy." And even though the Iraqi leader still depends on U.S. troops and funds.
But Allawi's ratings will collapse unless he can deliver what the U.S. occupation couldn't: security, services (especially electricity) and more jobs.
He will survive only if the Bush administration adopts a new strategy. A strategy that looks at Iraq as is, not as Pentagon civilian leaders imagined it before -- and even after -- the invasion. A strategy that ceases to regard Iraq as an experiment in social engineering where Americans can redesign a country as if they were playing with a set of Legos.
U.S. officials must give Allawi the resources to be in charge, even if he and his government don't follow the policies set down by U.S. officials.
Top priority: security
Most important is the area of security. The Iraqis have no competent security forces. U.S. officials disbanded the Iraqi army and haven't yet trained any Iraqis capable of or willing to fight the insurgency. Training and provision of supplies to Iraqi forces must be sped up. Results are needed in months.
Moreover, the prime minister must be aided in his efforts to persuade Iraqis to fight their countrymen. Until now, Iraqi security forces have mostly refused to fight insurgents in places like Fallujah or Najaf. Such esprit de corps can be mustered only if Iraqis believe they are acting in their country's interests, not those of the Americans. This requires U.S. commanders to consult closely with Allawi on battle plans and give him the lead.
Gen. David Petraeus, sent out by President Bush to revamp Iraqi security forces, understands these issues. I'm told that Gen. George Casey Jr., the new commander of U.S. troops in Iraq, will be looking at issues from a political as well as a military perspective.
But no one knows exactly how the new military partnership will work. If Allawi wants to impose martial law, which would require U.S. troops, can the United States comply? If a U.S. commander wants to invade Fallujah, and Allawi says no, will the Americans pay attention?
"We are no longer an occupying power," a senior U.S. official told me in Baghdad 10 days ago, in response to this question. "If a sovereign government tells us we shouldn't do something, we must listen." We'll see.
And the new level of U.S.-Iraqi cooperation must extend to economics, or the new government will falter. Its revenue from oil proceeds is heavily obligated, with a large chunk committed to contracts made by U.S. occupation authorities just before the turnover.
Budget assistance
So, when it comes to rebuilding Iraqi, Allawi must rely on the $18 billion appropriated last year by the U.S. Congress. But this money is moving painfully slowly through the pipeline: Only around $400 million has actually been spent. And the money is slated to go mainly to large U.S. contractors with a hefty portion set aside to pay foreign security contractors to guard the foreign workers.
This strategy won't create Iraqi jobs, in a society with close to 50 percent unemployment. Iraq's ambassador to the United States, Rend Rahim Francke, has urged that the money go instead to small labor-intensive projects that give more Iraqis a stake in their future.
This would require a major shift by the Bush administration -- away from Halliburton and Bechtel and toward an Iraqization of U.S. aid money. Can the administration abandon failed policies and help Allawi succeed?
Here is where all Americans -- supporters or opponents of the war -- should be pressing the Bush team to get real. If Iraq implodes, and more terrorists rush in, it isn't just the Bush administration that will pay the price. We all will.
XTrudy Rubin is a columnist and editorial-board member for the Philadelphia Inquirer. Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune Information Services.