You know how this one will end

By MILAN PAURICH
VINDICATOR CORRESPONDENT
HANDICAPPING THIS YEAR'S OSCAR derby seems downright boring since there's an obvious front-runner in each major category.
Unlike 2003 which proved to be an unexpected nail-biter (Adrien Brody? Roman Polanski?), Sunday's star-studded hootenanny promises to be a real yawner with the potential for dramatic upsets virtually nil.
As cool as it would be for Iranian Best Supporting Actress nominee Shohreh Aghdashloo to pull an upset victory over Renee Zellweger, or for "The Triplets of Belleville" to capsize the seemingly insurmountable "Finding Nemo," it simply isn't going to happen.
The most interesting race (Best Documentary Feature) is the one that nobody -- except movie critics -- even cares about. After scoring his first-ever nod, will groundbreaking documentarian Errol Morris win for the remarkable "Fog of War"? Or will Morris be denied his lifetime achievement award and lose to equally stunning work by novice helmers Andrew Jarecki ("Capturing the Friedmans") or DGA winner Nathaniel Kahn ("My Architect")?
Not exactly edge-of-your-seat stuff unless you're a real documentary buff.
So, unless there's a rash of "garment malfunctions" during the live broadcast, plan to settle in for another interminable night filled with long-winded, self-congratulatory speeches and dependably hideous haute couture. I wouldn't miss it for the world.
BEST PICTURE
This is the year that Hobbit fans have been awaiting with bated breath since 2001. Accordingly, Oscar risks unleashing the apocalyptic wrath of Mount Doom if "The Return of the King" comes away empty-handed. Will the Academy finally look beyond its deeply ingrained prejudice against fantasy films and finally reward Peter Jackson for creating three of the all-time greatest movie epics with his magnificent J.R.R. Tolkien trilogy? Do they even have a choice? Though "Mystic River" has a legitimate shot (it WAS directed by Hollywood royalty Clint Eastwood), the others: "Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World" (too cold); "Lost in Translation" (too small); and "Seabiscuit" (too lightweight) seem like also-rans.
SHOULD AND WILL WIN
"The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King."
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER
"In America."
BEST ACTOR
The two-man contest between Hollywood bad boy Sean Penn and former "Saturday Night Live" Not-Ready-for-Primetime-Player Bill Murray is the closest thing to a real horse race this year. Murray is the safer choice, since Penn's outspoken liberalism might hurt his chances with conservative -- read: older -- Academy members. If Penn and Murray split each other's votes (it happened last year when favorites Jack Nicholson and Daniel Day Lewis duked it out and wound up losing to Brody), Johnny Depp could squeak in for his impudent comic turn in the Disney blockbuster, "Pirates of the Caribbean." Neither Ben Kingsley ("House of Sand and Fog" wasn't seen by enough voters) nor Jude Law (more distant than haunted in "Cold Mountain & quot;) stands a chance. While I wouldn't be unhappy if either Murray or Depp wins, Penn's remarkable body of work spanning more than two decades -- including his equally strong performance in "21 Grams" -- makes him the most deserving pick overall.
SHOULD AND WILL WIN
Penn, "Mystic River."
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER
Billy Bob Thornton, "Bad Santa."
BEST ACTRESS
There's no way that Charlize Theron can lose. Oscar loves it when a glamorous former starlet gets either ugly (remember Nicole Kidman's prosthetic nose in "The Hours") or down-and-dirty (Halle Berry's graphic, emotionally-charged sex scenes in "Monster's Ball"). Since Theron did both while playing convicted serial killer Aileen Wuornos, she's a virtual lock. All of the nominees in this category are eminently worthy, and a win by Diane Keaton -- who hasn't taken home the prize since 1977's "Annie Hall" -- would send me to bed happy.
SHOULD WIN
Watts, "21 Grams."
WILL WIN
Theron, "Monster."
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER
Evan Rachel Wood, "Thirteen."
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Like Sean Penn, his equally controversial "Mystic River" co-star, Tim Robbins seems like the logical choice. While both are long overdue for Oscar recognition, their left-leaning politics could make them unpopular choices with the Academy's Old Guard. Still, it's easier picturing Robbins marching to the podium than any of his fellow nominees (Alec Baldwin and Djimon Hounsou's films weren't popular enough; Benicio Del Toro won three years ago for "Traffic" and it's too early for a repeat; and Ken Watanabe is hurt by industry perception that "The Last Samurai" was a box-office failure). Common sense -- always a precious commodity on Oscar night -- should prevail.
SHOULD WIN
Watanabe, "The Last Samurai."
WILL WIN
Robbins, "Mystic River."
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER
Bobby Cannavale, "The Station Agent."
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Renee Zellweger's pragmatic hillbilly was the life of the party in "Cold Mountain." Her victory would serve a dual purpose: consolation prize to "Mountain" distributor Miramax for being shut out of the Best Picture and Director categories, and as belated acknowledgment of Zellweger, who was nominated in the lead category two years running for "Bridget Jones's Diary" and "Chicago." Past winners Marcia Gay Harden ("Pollock," 2001) and Holly Hunter ("The Piano," 1993) shouldn't bother preparing their acceptance speeches, but it's great to see Patricia Clarkson finally get recognized (she was robbed of a nod last year for "Far From Heaven"), and Shohreh Aghdashloo's heartbreaking performance in "House of Sand and Fog" was the emotional center of a very chilly movie.
SHOULD AND WILL WIN
Zellweger, "Cold Mountain."
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER
Scarlett Johansson, "Lost in Translation."
BEST DIRECTOR
"Lord of the Rings" maestro Peter Jackson, of course. Peter Weir's "Master and Commander" was a movie that was more respected than loved (notice how Academy favorite Russell Crowe couldn't even snag a Best Actor mention?). Sofia Coppola will have to content herself with a Best Original Screenplay prize. "Mystic River" acting prizes for Penn and Robbins will make Clint Eastwood's day -- plus, he won Best Director 11 years ago for "Unforgiven." Fernando Meirelles' nomination is its own reward, and a deserved rebuke to those foggy heads in the Foreign Film division for not recognizing "City of God" when it was eligible for inclusion last year.
SHOULD AND WILL WIN
Peter Jackson, "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King."
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER
Jim Sheridan, "In America."
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
I'm not even sure how Disney's mediocre "Brother Bear" made the cut, except to fill out the third spot on the ballot. Pixar's computer-animated marvel "Finding Nemo" was the most popular and acclaimed movie of the year until "The Return of the King" came along. Even a much-admired foreign upstart like France's delectably retro-futurist "The Triplets of Belleville" doesn't stand a chance against the "Nemo" tsunami.
SHOULD AND WILL WIN
"Finding Nemo."
BEST FOREIGN FILM
Consistently the kookiest category (remember when "Amelie" lost to "No Man's Land"?), the foreign film race just keeps getting stranger every year. Because only Canada's "The Barbarian Invasions" was seen by anyone outside the nominating committee, picking a darkhorse candidate from the likes of such completely off-the-radar selections as "Twin Sisters," "The Twilight Samurai," "Evil," and "Zelary" is virtually impossible. Where are Afghanistan's Golden Globe awarded "Osama," Taiwan's "Goodbye Dragon Inn," Russia's "The Return" (the Golden Lion winner at last summer's Venice Film Festival), Germany's "Good Bye, Lenin!," or France's "Bon Voyage"?
SHOULD AND WILL WIN
"The Barbarian Invasions."
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER
Take your pick.
BEST SONG
Oscar loves honoring aging rock 'n' roll institutions (Bob Dylan, Neil Young, Bruce Springsteen, et al), and this year they have a veritable smorgasbord to choose from: Sting ("You Will Be My Ain True Love"); Elvis Costello ("Scarlet Tide"); and Annie Lennox ("Into the West"). The two "Cold Mountain" songs ("Love" and "Tide") should effectively cancel each other out, and Lennox may be hurt by the anticipated "Return of the King" sweep. After all, how many gold statuettes can Peter Jackson & amp; Co. claim in one night? Even though some Academy stuffed shirts might not consider "A Kiss at the End of the Rainbow" (from "A Mighty Wind") or "The Triplets of Belleville" "real" songs since they were written and performed as jokes, I'm betting that a sense of humor prevails and "Rainbow" will sneak in.
SHOULD AND WILL WIN
"A Kiss at the End of the Rainbow," "A Mighty Wind."
SHOULDA BEEN A CONTENDER
"Man of the Hour," "Big Fish."