Listen up, Washington
Dallas Morning News: The nation's economic oracle has spoken. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan doesn't like deficits. Now if only Congress and the Bush administration would listen.
Greenspan is hardly infallible. He was slow to recognize the impact of productivity gains and new technology on the Internet economy. Nonetheless, his crystal ball and the message he delivered to Congress, the belly of the spending beast, are disturbingly on target.
Unless Congress and the White House learn some fiscal discipline, spiraling deficits could undermine the economic recovery and threaten the nation's long-term economic health.
The tragedy of this prospect is that signs of economic recovery are emerging. The Fed predicts the economy will grow by between 4.5 percent and 5 percent this year, slightly more than the 3.75 percent to 4.75 percent the central bank had projected last year. And the Fed expects the unemployment rate, which fell in January to 5.6 percent, would improve to between 5.25 percent and 5.5 percent near the end of the year. And while jobs aren't exactly bountiful, companies are starting to hire again.
Tough-love sermon
The problem, however, is that the administration doesn't acknowledge Greenspan's tough-love sermon. The administration projects that this year's deficit will hit an all-time high of $521 billion. But while this is enough to send some deficit hawks soaring, the administration still contends that deficits are necessary in time of war, pose no threat to the economy and will contract as the economy fully recovers.
But, as Greenspan points out, it's time to replace deficit-cutting pledges with deficit-cutting actions. Failure to do so means that Social Security reform will get derailed again. And foreigners could bail out of U.S. investments, stock prices could fall, and interest rates could rise.
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