Local Dean backers' hopes fade as his campaign loses steam

The candidate says he will withdraw if he loses the Wisconsin primary.
By DAVID SKOLNICK
VINDICATOR POLITICS WRITER
YOUNGSTOWN -- It was less than a month ago that about 400 people packed the Niles Middle School auditorium to vote on whom the 17th Congressional District would select as Howard Dean's presidential delegates to the Democratic National Convention.
The turnout was so great that Dean supporters made up about half of the 17th District residents who came to the school to vote for delegates for all of the presidential candidates.
But much can change in politics in a few weeks.
After the former Vermont governor's disappointing showings in various state primaries and caucuses, several of Dean's more prominent local supporters are essentially waving the white flag and saying their candidate's chance of becoming the Democratic nominee is all but gone.
"I can't figure it out; I truly thought I was supporting a winner," said state Sen. Robert F. Hagan of Youngstown, D-33rd. Hagan is a Dean delegate and was the first Ohio senator to endorse his presidential candidacy.
"Who would have thought a campaign that raised $40 million and attracted a cadre of young people would crumble so quickly?" Hagan said. "Getting his message out was harder than we thought."
Deadline for withdrawal
Dean says if he doesn't win the Wisconsin primary Feb. 17, he will withdraw from the race.
Hagan acknowledges he hasn't had the best string of luck supporting candidates, going back to George McGovern, who was badly defeated in the 1972 presidential election by Richard Nixon.
"I saw a parade, and I wanted to get on it," he said about Dean. "I really like the guy, and I wanted to support someone who was close to my philosophy who could win."
Hagan said he initially supported U.S. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts for president, but he went with Dean because he didn't think Kerry could win.
Neither did many 17th Congressional District residents who showed up at the Jan. 12 event to select presidential delegates. Kerry had the smallest caucus there, and only two people ran for seven available delegate seats for him.
With Dean appearing to be finished, Hagan said he plans to support Kerry.
Patrick Lowry of Youngstown, another Dean delegate from the 17th District, said he's still supporting the former governor but realizes it's pretty close to a lost cause.
"It's looking bleak, but you don't predict what happens in politics tomorrow," Lowry said. "It doesn't look like I'll be at the convention."
Lowry is press secretary to U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan of Niles, D-17th, the first Ohio member of Congress to endorse Dean. Lowry said Ryan is still supporting Dean.
Coordinator's assessment
Larry Mrus, Dean's 17th Congressional District coordinator, said the campaign is "down to the last wing and a prayer."
Mrus said he is not sure that Dean's campaign can be resurrected even with a win in Wisconsin, but he is hopeful.
"I've never seen anything like this," he said. "Who'd ever thought that John Kerry would be where he is today?"
Mrus said Dean's opposition to the war in Iraq and the president's tax cuts resonated with people.
"They liked the message, but they didn't like the man," he said. "He comes on a bit too strong for people."
State Sen. Marc Dann of Liberty switched his support a few months ago from U.S. Sen. Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut to Dean, and ran Dean's 17th District caucus.
Dann, D-32nd, said he doesn't know what went wrong with Dean's campaign, but that the former governor succeeded in bringing new people to the political arena.
"I don't think he's finished yet," Dann said. "Winning one state is a start. He's not out of it if he wins Wisconsin."
If Dean is gone, Dann said he would support U.S. Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina.
Hagan said he was contacted a while back about Dean visiting Cleveland on Feb. 20, and then traveling to Youngstown for a campaign stop. But that visit has been canceled.
"I was very excited to ride with him," Hagan said. "Not only will he not be riding to Youngstown, but he won't be riding anywhere else."
skolnick@vindy.com