Exit plan for Iraq will take years

By JOHN C. BERSIA
ORLANDO SENTINEL
In the early days of the U.S.-led intervention in Iraq, war was spectacular, with stunning displays of military domination, precision-planning and one success after another. Smiles came easily.
These days, war is horrible, with multiple insurgencies in bloom, little apparent clarity of direction and one setback after another. Only returning U.S. troops can manage smiles.
Not surprisingly, some Americans appear more intent on having President Bush define an exit strategy than on allowing him time to straighten out the mess that this nation has created in ousting Saddam Hussein. That Bush offers no such strategy encourages the thinking that he will blindly proceed in Iraq, despite mounting U.S. casualties, and risk creating his own Vietnam, plunging the United States into a hell from which there is no exit.
Sorry to add another seemingly discouraging word, but the Bush administration has no disengagement plan at this point for good reason. Other than a few irresponsible options -- such as cutting and running or using the occasion of a new Iraqi government's installation, perhaps late next year, as a premature opportunity to declare U.S. obligations fulfilled -- none is evident.
In fact, given the challenges that this nation shoulders in Iraq, no clear exit strategy will likely materialize for years. If pro-intervention Americans had grasped those realities at the front end of the effort, they might not have proceeded so eagerly.
Of course, the situation could change if more countries took a role in resolving the Iraq crisis and if that nation's largely silent majority did its part to dampen extremism. The United States and its small pack of allies, especially with their present limited resources, cannot hope to lift Iraq up and set it on a stable, peaceful course.
Because neither prospect appears likely at the moment, the United States will have to assume even greater responsibility during the short term, starting with a military buildup that eventually could double the number of U.S. troops in Iraq. The Bush administration needs sufficient force to lock down trouble spots, eliminate opportunities for insurgents to cause disruption, and otherwise promote order and command respect.
Effects of control
Restoring control would enable the United States to move more quickly on other critical goals, such as transferring authority to the Iraqi people and expanding reliable access to daily necessities and critical services. It also would bolster Bush's chances of securing more international support, especially in following through with a plan for greater U.N. involvement that he embraced Thursday.
More than the fate of Iraq depends on the United States' success. So does Bush's political future.
Three factors, including the war in Iraq, will determine whether Bush receives four more years or the Democrats' heir-apparent, John Kerry, is given a chance.
If the "tough weeks," as Bush described them in his address to the nation last week, turn into several tough months, the intervention in Iraq will weigh heavily against him. Kerry understands the opportunity and thus has spoken critically about the president's handling of the war. It would be more useful for voters, however, if Kerry would move beyond generalities and present a detailed, coherent, long-term alternative strategy for the United States in Iraq.
Major campaign issue
The war against terrorism figures as the second factor. Bush has built his presidency, and staked his re-election hopes, on confronting that global challenge. To date, the United States has deflected dozens of terrorist plots against its interests that might have resulted in calamity, leading many Americans to believe that the worst has passed. It has not. If America makes it to Election Day without another catastrophic attack -- which, rest assured, the terrorists are planning -- Bush will gain politically. Otherwise, he will suffer.
Finally, one has to factor in the perennial deciding factor in many presidential races, the economy, which, despite a few signs of improvement, has not embraced buoyancy.
No matter who wins the presidency, though, that person will have to deal with Iraq and the U.S. duty to restore stability. Perhaps during the next presidential term ... the United States will gain the perspective to define a clear exit strategy from Iraq that unavoidably escapes today's political leaders.
XJohn C. Bersia, who won a Pulitzer Prize in editorial writing for the Orlando Sentinel in 2000, is also the special assistant to the president for global perspectives.