Analyst: Issues will affect race in Ohio

Bush narrowly won Ohio four years ago.
COLUMBUS (AP) -- The November presidential ballot in Ohio may be so hotly contested that possible referendums on casino-style gambling and gay marriage could take a back seat in importance and impact.
"If we're going to have a close presidential race as we suspect, these things are going to make a difference on the margin," said William Binning, a Youngstown State University political analyst. "They're not going to define the outcome, but they're going to make a difference."
President Bush won Ohio four years ago by fewer than 4 percentage points, and no one is predicting the vote this year will be any less close.
Complicating the issue is lawmakers' latest attempt to place a referendum before voters to allow electronic slot machines on Ohio's seven racetracks.
If the legislative attempt fails, as it has several times in the past, racetracks have promised to start a petition drive to put it on the ballot themselves.
Gay marriage
In addition, opponents of gay marriage have started their own petition drive to place a proposal on the November ballot amending the state constitution to ban same-sex marriages. They're making the effort even though Ohio enacted one of the country's toughest same-sex marriage ban this year.
Voters have twice rejected casino gambling in Ohio, including a 1996 proposal that would have allowed eight casinos -- three each in the Cleveland and Cincinnati areas, and one each in Lorain and Youngstown.
Church groups that strongly opposed the 1996 proposal turned the issue into a moral crusade, Binning said.
Senate President Doug White said any controversial issue before voters could plant "seeds of negativism" that could distract from his goal of electing Republican lawmakers.
"I know elections, and I know how you tug and pull at a very small middle and any seed of negative doubt will move a certain amount of those narrow center people," said White, a Manchester Republican.
House Speaker Larry Householder, a Glenford Republican, acknowledged that the slots proposal might appeal more to Democrats. Some House Democrats in the past supported similar plans, saying that gambling was legal and was a choice people could make for themselves.
Taft opposes gambling
Taft, a Republican who opposes the video gambling idea, said he doesn't think it will affect voter turnout.
"The turnout will be driven by the presidential campaign," Taft said.
Conventional wisdom says a vote on slots benefits Republican candidates since the proposal would draw out more conservative voters, said Dale Butland, a Democratic political strategist.
But in this election, turnout already will be heavy for Bush and presumptive Democratic nominee John Kerry, he said, making it less likely that slot machines would bring out undecided voters.
"I would guess that whoever would show up to vote against slots are probably going to show up to vote for Bush," Butland said.
Conversely, the reason most Democrats "are going to come out is to vote for Kerry, and while they're there they'll vote for slots," he said. "I don't think it's the other way around."