Driving right off the road

Many Americans are still trying to parse the Bush administration's motives for waging an Iraq war.
But the new mystery is why, with the Iraq policy in trouble, the president would unravel the remains of his Mideast peace policy, and set the Arab world further on edge.
That's what the president did last week, when he abandoned America's role as an honest broker between Israel and the Arabs. This role is key if the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is ever to be ended.
So why did the president do what he did?
Standing next to Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, Bush backed Israeli positions that undercut his own Middle East initiative, known as the road map. The president endorsed Israel's retention of portions of the West Bank containing Jewish settlements. This was a quid pro quo for Sharon's pledge to withdraw Jewish settlements from the Gaza Strip, an impoverished strip of land that almost no Israeli wants.
Bill Clinton also endorsed Israeli retention of some of the West Bank. But he acted in the context of U.S.-brokered negotiations, in which Palestinians and Israelis agreed to swap equal amounts of land. This time, there were no Palestinians present, and no talk of swaps. Bush also broke a U.S. pledge not to prejudge future negotiations. This move so upset Jordan's moderate King Abdullah II, a key U.S. ally, that he canceled Wednesday's planned visit to Washington.
Going on defensive
At a time when the White House is pushing Arab political reform, and an Arab summit is upcoming, Bush's stance puts reformers like Abdullah on the defensive. Aides to the Iraqi Governing Council members tell me Bush's move upsets their publics.
So again, we must ask: Why did the president do it, and why now?
One obvious answer is presidential politics. Bush's endorsement of Sharon will play well among his core supporters on the Christian right (many of whom hope Israel will soon be the scene of the final battle of Armageddon). The Bush endorsement may also corral some key Jewish votes in Florida.
But put aside such cynical conjectures. President Bush may have thought Sharon's move would jump-start the frozen Mideast peace process. Palestinian suicide bombers derailed the peace process in 2000. And Bush rightly believes that Yasser Arafat is not a leader who can negotiate a peace.
Some U.S. officials have argued that the Sharon plan will jolt Palestinians into reforming their governing institutions. In a letter to Sharon, Bush called for the fostering of new Palestinian leaders and institutions. Such calls, sadly, ignore the details of the Sharon plan.
Under this plan, Israel would retain military positions inside Gaza and would control Gaza's borders, airspace and sea space. In effect, more than a million Gazans would be locked up in a tiny territory without jobs or hope, dependent on international aid. In such circumstances, Hamas militants would flourish even if Israel continued assassinations.
The Sharon plan would also encourage more militance on the West Bank. Likud party leaders make clear that the Gaza withdrawal is the signal to invest tens of millions in expanding settlements on the West Bank.
This settlement expansion forecloses prospects for a viable Palestinian state. Yet President Bush says he seeks such a state.
Solving a mystery
So the White House must solve the mystery of why Bush backed the Sharon plan. If the President truly wants to link Gaza withdrawal to a broader peace plan there are steps he could still take.
To produce new Palestinian leadership, Bush should support new Palestinian elections, on the West Bank as well as Gaza. "This would bring accountability, and create a legitimate parliament," says Khalil Shikaki, the West Bank's best known pollster. New leaders, he says, would be able to challenge Arafat and to bargain with Israel.
Israel has little interest in such elections, which would require a cease-fire and a military withdrawal from West Bank cities. U.S. officials are wary; they fear election of Hamas members, and the reelection of Arafat.
But unless Bush uses Sharon's withdrawal as the excuse for a new U.S. initiative, Gaza will fester. American policy in the region will be discredited.
XRubin is a columnist for the Philadelphia Inquirer. Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune Information Services.