AUTO INDUSTRY Union will lose more jobs
Most will occur through attrition and early retirements, not layoffs.
DETROIT (AP) -- The United Auto Workers could lose up to 50,000 jobs at Detroit's Big Three automakers and two major suppliers over the next four years, but analysts say the union is likely to make up some of the losses by organizing nonunion suppliers.
Analysts also note that the bulk of job losses will occur through attrition and early retirement, not from layoffs at plants that will be closed or sold as part of tentative labor pacts reached last week between the UAW and General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co., DaimlerChrysler AG's Chrysler Group and suppliers Delphi Corp. and Visteon Corp.
Most workers at plants targeted for sale or closure are expected to find jobs elsewhere in their companies. Ratification votes on the four-year contracts are likely in the next week. The union currently represents about 300,000 workers.
"No one voting on this agreement is threatened at all with more than, let's say, an uncomfortable transfer," Sean McAlinden, chief economist at the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Mich., said Tuesday.
Steady decline
Still, the losses are significant because they reflect the steady decline of U.S. market share among Detroit's Big Three automakers and the continuing elimination of some of the most highly paid manufacturing jobs in the country.
McAlinden estimates the UAW will lose 49,000 jobs at the Big Three, Delphi and Visteon over the four-year life of the new contracts. But he expects the union to add at least 25,000 jobs by organizing workers at nonunion suppliers.
McAlinden and other analysts have said the UAW likely agreed to some plant closings or divestitures in exchange for help from the Big Three in organizing certain suppliers.
Goldman Sachs analyst Gary Lapidus said UAW President Ron Gettelfinger also would like to grow the union's membership by enlisting nonunion workers at plants owned by foreign automakers, primarily in the South, an effort that has languished so far.
Tentative contracts the UAW reached with the automakers last week would allow the companies to close or sell about a dozen plants in an attempt to cut costs and close the productivity gap with Asian and European automakers.