YOUNGSTOWN Hagan considers run for Congress

The Youngstown Democrat would take on a five-term Republican incumbent.
By DAVID SKOLNICK
VINDICATOR POLITICS WRITER
YOUNGSTOWN -- State Sen. Robert F. Hagan is considering a run next year for Congress -- in the 18th District, a sprawling, Republican-leaning, rural district that takes in all or portions of 16 counties that are between 50 miles and 250 miles from the Youngstown Democrat's home.
Hagan, D-33rd, was recently approached about running by U.S. Rep. Marcy Kaptur of Toledo, who was acting on behalf of the Democratic National Committee and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Hagan said he plans to meet soon in Columbus with DNC and DCCC officials to discuss the election further before deciding whether to run. The filing deadline to run in the 2004 primary election is Jan. 2.
Incumbent
If he runs, Hagan would be challenging U.S. Rep. Bob Ney of St. Clairsville, a five-term Republican incumbent who serves as chairman of the Committee on House Administration, the Financial Services Subcommittee on Housing and the Commission on Mailing Standards. He is also a deputy majority whip.
"They want to take him on because he's vulnerable," Hagan said about the DNC and DCCC.
Paul Sracic, a Youngstown State University political science professor, doesn't see it that way. He says Hagan wouldn't be running against a weak Republican.
"Here you have a powerful Republican who's served for almost 10 years now, chairman of a committee, has a lot of money, and Hagan would be running in an area, most of which, he's never run in before," Sracic said. "This would be an uphill battle to say the least. This doesn't seem to be a likely target for a liberal Democrat."
Hagan was re-elected in 2002 to a second four-year term in the state Senate, representing all of Mahoning and Carroll counties, and a small portion of Tuscarawas County. Carroll and Tuscarawas are in the 18th Congressional District.
Although he easily won with 68 percent of the vote against Republican Holly Hanni, Hagan received only 51 percent of the vote in the Republican-leaning Carroll County. He received 67 percent of the vote in Tuscarawas.
Because of the state's term-limits law, Hagan will have to leave the Senate on Dec. 31, 2006. Hagan says he plans to run for either Congress next year against Ney or for his former Ohio House seat. That position is currently held by state Rep. Sylvester D. Patton Jr. of Youngstown, D-60th, who would have to leave at the end of 2006 because of term limits. Patton would vacate the seat if he wins the 2005 Youngstown mayoral race.
Funds
Hagan said he would run against Ney if national Democrats guaranteed they could raise at least $400,000 for his campaign.
Ney raised $654,214 for his re-election in 2002 when he faced no opposition. In 2000, the last time Ney faced opposition, he raised $1,045,861. Ney's most-recent filing with the Federal Election Commission shows he has $232,231.
Hagan would need at least $750,000 to compete with Ney, said William Binning, YSU political science department chairman. Less than five congressional candidates have won general elections during the past two decades when they spent less money on their campaigns than the incumbents, said Melanie Blumberg, a political scientist at California University in Pennsylvania.
Also, Hagan wants national Democrats to do everything they can to "deliver all of labor. I would be reluctant to do it without complete labor support."
Hagan has received much labor support during his political career. But Ney, a former teacher, is also a favorite of labor, particularly teachers' unions. Organized labor is a major contributor to Ney, giving him $231,000 since 1999, according to Political Money Line, a Web site that monitors campaign finance reports.
New territory
Hagan said he is concerned about being labeled an outsider because he doesn't live in the 18th District. But Binning said it probably wouldn't be much of an issue. A number of congressional candidates in Ohio have run for seats without living in those districts. State law requires congressional candidates only to be residents of Ohio.
"If this rumor [of Hagan's running] is true, it points to Congressman Ney's strong record of results and support from his constituents that the DCCC isn't able to even find a candidate against him who actually lives in the 18th District," said Brian Walsh, Ney's spokesman.
"While the congressman would more than welcome the opportunity to put his record on the line against Mr. Hagan, this is likely nothing more than hot air from a bored politician who wants to get his name in the paper rather than on the ballot."
Hagan said he wasn't impressed with Ney when the two served together in the state Legislature in the late 1980s and early 1990s.
"He was the type of guy who went along to get along," Hagan said of Ney. "I don't think he did much in the Legislature."
Hagan probably has decent name recognition in the 18th District, primarily because his brother ran for governor last year, and may benefit from a possible voter backlash to Gov. Bob Taft and Republicans, Sracic said.
But Sracic, Binning and Blumberg say Ney would be the favorite in a race against Hagan.
"Bob Hagan would have to overcome his image of being that quintessential liberal," Blumberg said.
Hagan unsuccessfully sought the Democratic nomination in the 2000 election for the 17th District congressional seat, losing the primary to James A. Traficant Jr. Hagan considered a run for the 17th last year, but opted to seek re-election to the state Senate.
skolnick@vindy.com