TELECOMMUNICATIONS Experts, officials give fuzzy picture of digital TV's eventual adoption

The regulations will begin to take effect next year.
MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL STAR TRIBUNE
The federal government wants you to have the clearest, cleanest TV reception possible.
But its efforts to bring that about have made for a situation as fuzzy as a 1950s Zenith with rabbit ears. Bottom line: Millions of Americans might have to replace their TV sets within the next three to four years because of mandates by the Federal Communications Commission, and it's not clear whether the so-called digital-ready televisions currently being sold will do the trick all by themselves.
But experts and industry officials can't agree on how many people will be affected or even whether things will unfold as planned between now and 2007. There's also disagreement on how much the switch will cost consumers, with industry officials saying the rules will add as much as $250 to the price of a new TV set, while the FCC says the cost will be closer to $50.
"This is a point of consumer confusion," said Jenny Miller, spokeswoman for the Consumer Electronics Association, a Virginia-based trade group that represents more than 600 companies involved in making and distributing communications technology. "The negative is that this is going to force the consumer to go out and buy something they might not otherwise have chosen to buy."
Initial reaction
When the FCC handed down its orders to the TV-makers last year, manufacturers rebelled. On the day the new regulations were announced, the CEA filed a lawsuit to void them.
But a federal appeals court recently upheld the regulations, which require TV manufacturers to install tuners that can receive digital broadcast signals in their new sets. The regulations take effect next summer for all TV sets 36 inches and larger; in 2005 for sets 27 inches and larger, and in 2006 for sets larger than 13 inches.
Why the need for digital tuners? They enable the TVs to receive digital broadcast signals, which the FCC has ordered all broadcasters to use beginning in 2007.
For years, the FCC has been pushing broadcasters to switch from analog to digital technology. The change was prompted by the 1997 federal budget. To reduce the federal deficit, Congress decided to move the TV broadcasters to a different part of the wireless spectrum on the airwaves.
That would allow the government to auction off the newly vacated analog spectrum to wireless telecommunication companies, potentially raising hundreds of billions of dollars.
"This transition is all about the government selling off the analog TV part of the spectrum," said Phillip Swann, CEO of TV Predictions Inc., a Washington consulting firm. "There is no public-service benefit to adopting digital TV."
Impact on consumers
When the switch is made from analog to digital, older TV sets no longer will be able to receive broadcast transmissions -- unless their owners buy an add-on digital tuner or sign up for cable or satellite service.
About 15 percent of the nation's 106 million TV-owning households currently get their shows the old-fashioned way -- with an antenna on the TV set or rooftop. Those homes will see their screens go blank in 2007. With an average of 2.6 sets per household, more than 40 million TVs in the United States could be obsolete in three to four years.
But the law is vague on several key points, and that could delay the switch to digital, said Bruce Jacobs, chief technologist for Twin Cities Public Television in Minnesota.
"This will all come down to a political decision. At such date when the FCC gets pressure to turn off analog, and they start doing it, what is the public's response? And how much pressure will the public put on Congress?" Jacobs said.
The 85 percent of households that already subscribe to cable or satellite service won't have to buy new sets unless they want to do so for enhanced viewing pleasure.
"Do they want to continue watching television as they experience it today? If they've got cable or direct broadcast satellite, they've got nothing to worry about," Jacobs said.
"But do they want better pictures? If they want better pictures, they definitely need a new display. Their old television set -- they can't suddenly make it magically have better pictures."