MAHONING VALLEY Placement company officials: Local job recovery will come -- slowly

'We're rounding the corner,' a local job-outlook expert said.
By PETER H. MILLIKEN
VINDICATOR STAFF WRITER
Officials of job placement firms in the Mahoning Valley say they are hopeful that good third quarter economic news will translate soon into significant job growth here.
"We're hopeful to see that, but, at this point, it seems like the recovery has been a jobless-type recovery," said a cautiously optimistic Tom Walsh, president of Callos Management Co., of Boardman.
"Our client base is not calling us and is not seeing increases in demand for their product, which drives their need for people.
"Through the next quarter anyway, we don't expect to see much of a pickup in the local job economy. But we're hopeful that, in the second quarter [of 2004], we'll start to see that become better," Walsh said
"We're rounding the corner," said Art Daly, employment agent with Randstad North America's Warren office, of the current Mahoning Valley employment scene. "The unemployment rate has dropped slowly. I do think businesses are seeing a brighter outlook right now." He predicted faster local job growth would occur at the end of this quarter or very early next year.
"There's still no question that it's a tough job market, and that's like many other communities in the entire nation," said Dennis Yurco, Northeast Ohio sales manager for Manpower Inc. Although many indicators clearly demonstrate that the economy is improving, the job market is recovering slowly, he said.
'Promising sign'
The job placement firm officials were asked to react to recent news that the U.S. economy experienced its fastest growth in almost 20 years as indicated by a 7.2 percent rise in the gross domestic product, the total domestic output of goods and services, in this year's third quarter.
"It is a very promising sign," Yurco said of the GDP report as it pertains to the local job market. "Throughout history, indicators such as that usually are a precursor to job growth."
"In our area, automotive and automotive-related employment is a key," Walsh said. "And we see that there is some slowdown right now in automotive sales. Our services will decline because of that."
But Daly and Yurco said their companies' current experience is more encouraging.
"There have been more companies calling on us to staff up, especially in the manufacturing area, which is surprising," Daly reported. "They're getting orders back again."
"What we're seeing lately in the last quarter is an uptick, if you will, nothing to the extent of the late '90s, but certainly an uptick, and that's promising," Yurco said, referring to calls to his company from employers seeking employees.
Economic resurgence
Walsh said a national economic resurgence will benefit the Mahoning Valley.
"If things are going well nationally, and people have more dollars in their pockets and they're buying more automobiles, that's going to translate into demand for people that supply automotive, and that's going to help us," Walsh observed.
But Daly said the Mahoning Valley has historically lagged behind the rest of the country in an economic recovery by about six to eight months because it has few major corporate players.
"We don't have a lot of big players in the Mahoning and Trumbull county areas, but we have a lot of secondary players [parts suppliers] that are attached to the bigger firms," such as General Motors and Ford, he said. Daly referred to this as a "trickle-down effect'' that eventually benefits the Valley.
"It'll lag behind [the national economic resurgence] a little bit because so much of your job loss was in manufacturing," Keith Ewald, a state labor market analyst, said of the Valley. The long-term outlook doesn't show an overall growth in manufacturing jobs, he said.
Therefore, The Ohio Department of Job and Family Services projects that, between 1998 and 2008, the Mahoning Valley will experience an 8.2 percent job growth, compared with 12.5 percent statewide, according to Ewald, a Columbus-based analyst with the department.
Christmas retail
The job placement officials had differing views on prospects for local Christmas seasonal retail employment this year.
"It sounds to me like it's going to be average, because I don't see a lot of growth in jobs in general," Walsh said.
"It will hopefully be at least an average year," Yurco said. "There are some boosted levels of confidence in some people's minds, whereas others are being laid off as we speak."
"I'd say above average because I do think people are spending more," Daly said, citing strong patronage of local restaurants. "I think it'll be very busy because people are starting to feel good. It's a feel good process. If people feel confident that they're not going to lose their jobs, they'll open up their wallets a little more during the season."
But, no matter what stage the economy is in, Ewald has encouraging news for job seekers. Typically, two-thirds to three-quarters of all job openings are for people replacing workers who've left their positions for reasons including resignation and retirement, he said. The remainder of the openings are typically new positions.