SHOPPING SEASON Will back-to-school retail flunk in the poor economy?

The average family is spending $100 less on back-to-school shopping.
CHICAGO TRIBUNE
CHICAGO -- Like many teenagers, Brian Abbott would like nothing better than to be carefree and squander away his summer savings. But it's a luxury he'll have to bypass this year.
"I probably won't spend as much, because I'm not making as much," said the 19-year-old, who's working at Six Flags Great America in Gurnee, Ill., this summer.
Abbott, a Milwaukee native who will be a sophomore this fall at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, was hoping to add to his wardrobe at the downtown Gap store on Michigan Avenue. But Abbott walked out with his mother and brother, not finding "anything worth buying."
Such frugalness is causing more than sleepless nights for the nation's retailers, whose fortunes have been pinched by the economic downturn. Behind the December holiday season, back-to-school sales make up the second-biggest season for retail.
Companies hoping that back-to-school shoppers will reinvigorate the sluggish retail market are likely to be disappointed. The average family with school-age children will spend, on average, $450.76 on back-to-school items this year, up just 2 percent from 2002, according to a survey by the National Retail Federation.
"Back-to-school sales aren't going to catapult just because it's August," said Ellen Tolley, a spokeswoman for the group.
Economic downturn
Compared with 2000, spending has fallen drastically. Three years ago, households spent on average $548.80 during the back-to-school period. But when the economic bubble burst, thanks in part to the dot-com free-fall, the retail world took a hit, as luxury spending gave way to the necessity of saving.
In 2001, consumer spending fell more than 18 percent during the back-to-school season. The per-household average has been hovering at the $450 mark ever since.
"Consumers in 2000 would go in August and buy a coat for winter, and we're not seeing that this year," Tolley said.
Still, retailers are hoping to entice the pennywise. Seattle-based Eddie Bauer will launch a nationwide promotion for backpacks on July 31, selling them at a 20 percent to 50 percent discount. Spokeswoman Lisa Erickson said the campaign has the back-to-school crowd in mind, but also serves to kick-start its third and fourth quarters, the biggest-selling period for the outdoor gear and apparel company.
Targeting college students
In addition to elementary and high school supplies, Minneapolis-based Target has a line of back-to-college gear, selling designer linens and futons, among other dorm room accessories. Like other retailers, it is beginning to see a trend: the traditional back-to-school shopping period from Aug. 1 through Labor Day will likely stretch until the end of September.
"The time frame for spending has been more spread out because different schools start differently," said Target spokesperson Cathy Wright.
Another reason, according to consumer analysts, is that many students scout the first few weeks of school to see what clothes their classmates are wearing, what celebrity is on their three-ring binder cover and what name brand is emblazoned on each other's backpacks.
"Parents wait for what their kids really need," said George Rosenbaum, chairman of Leo J. Shapiro and Associates, a Chicago consumer research firm.
That patient and frugal mindset may be reaching a younger age, observers said.
At one Chicago Target, 13-year-old Emily Hixson faces a daunting decision. Staring at the two packages, she asks herself, which protractor do I want? With her Aunt Monica watching, Emily chooses the cheaper, 37-cent plastic model over the undoubtedly cooler neon orange protractor, priced at $3.99.