Taking stock of this year's predictions

New Year's predictions, especially those offered in print, can be dangerous to a columnist's reputation. Make the wrong ones and the critics come out of the woodwork to denigrate.
That's why the following escape clause was included in the 2003 New Year's column in this space:
" ... here are some predictions for 2003 that hopefully will be forgotten by this time next year."
But it is now clear, with the year coming to an end, that the cautionary note was unnecessary. The predictions made were, in large part, on the mark and, indeed, could be viewed as prescient.
Consider:
U"Youngstown State University will raise tuition again in the fall because its financial condition will remain comatose, if not worsen."
Two weeks ago, YSU's board of trustees, on the recommendation of President David Sweet, increased tuition by 8 percent.
But there was one major omission in the prediction. Nothing was said about the pay raises the trustees would give university executives and administrators, again on Sweet's recommendation.
On the other hand, what right-thinking person would have predicted pay raises being given at the same time the university was sticking it to the students?
U"Ohio's new attorney general, Jim Petro, will go after two former Mahoning Valley Sanitary District directors, Edward A. Flask and Frank DeJute, with a vengeance."
It turns out that vengeance may have been too mild a word. The phrase "with guns blazing" seems to be much more appropriate.
In September, Petro, the former state auditor who launched a special audit of the MVSD that resulted in findings for recovery of more than $2 million, took the state's case against Flask and DeJute to the 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Cincinnati.
Petro's refusal to give the two former directors a pass on repaying the money the state audit found had been misspent during their tenure has earned him kudos from the residents of the Valley.
It really doesn't matter whether he succeeds in overturning a federal judge's ruling that, in effect, let Flask, DeJute and the Gilbane Co. of Rhode Island off the hook for the $2.5 million the company received for work it never did. What is important is that a state officeholder recognizes the need to send a message to those responsible for spending public dollars: You're being watched.
It's a message that's worth repeating during every election in the Mahoning Valley.
U "Patrick J. Ungaro, the former mayor of Youngstown and currently administrator of Liberty Township, will begin testing the waters for a possible bid for another term as the city of Youngstown's chief executive."
Ungaro did contemplate a run, but his decision to buy a house in Liberty, coupled with a charter amendment approved by Youngstown voters, sealed his fate -- for the foreseeable future, at least
The "Ungaro amendment" as it has come to be known, says, in effect, that any city resident who moves out and then returns would have to live in the city for five years before again being considered a legal resident to run for mayor.
(In the interest of full disclosure, this writer admits that he urged Ungaro to consider another run for mayor.)
The final prediction for 2003 that appeared in this space had to do with Congressman Tim Ryan.
Ryan was starting his first term as the 17th District representative, and it was suggested that it would not take long for him to "earn a reputation as Congress' No. 1 party boy."
Who's to say that the word party didn't apply to Ryan's toeing the Democratic Party line and establishing himself as a voice for organized labor, which played an active role in his election?
No one, other than this columnist.
The "party boy" reference had to do with Ryan's relatively young age and the fact that he had not established himself as a serious legislator when he was in the Ohio Senate and, therefore, could be expected to bring an "Animal House" atmosphere to the hallowed halls of Congress.
However, Ryan's marriage this year suggests that he is making an effort to be taken seriously. That said, his endorsement of former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean for the Democratic presidential nomination demonstrates he has a lot of political growing up to do.