HOW HE SEES IT Saddam's capture sends 4 messages

By JOHN C. BERSIA
ORLANDO SENTINEL
The capture of Saddam Hussein, just as opposition forces in Iraq were displaying greater sophistication, organization and inventiveness, could not have happened at a more timely juncture. With the "ace of spades" in custody, Saddam loyalists -- except for a few die-hards -- have little incentive to chase the shadows of the revolution that ushered their leader to power.
Now the fate of Saddam belongs to the legal system, preferably in Iraq itself, which will consider his role as one of history's worst tyrants -- with hundreds of thousands of direct or indirect deaths to his name.
First, though, Saddam has a potential wealth of knowledge to share about his role in leading the insurgency during the past several months, the true extent of Iraq's weapons-of-mass-destruction programs, and his country's connections to Al-Qaida and other terrorist groups.
But the securing of Saddam, some eight months after the battle phase of the Iraq war concluded, hardly portends the end of trouble for U.S.-led coalition forces. The buildup of violent extremists, inspired by Al-Qaida and others -- from before, during and after the battle phase of the war -- makes Iraq one of the most dangerous and critical fronts in the global war against terrorism.
That struggle will challenge the United States and its allies for many years, although the task will unfold more easily to the extent that Iraq's stabilization and reconstruction accelerate.
The messages
In the interest of working toward that goal, Saddam's capture ideally will send the following messages:
UTo Saddam loyalists, "One fully expects that you will continue to throw bombs at U.S.-led forces to show that you still retain a measure of vigor, commitment and firepower. Yet you fool no one. Your cause has evaporated. Each day that U.S.-led forces spend in Iraq increases their knowledge and capabilities. If they could snatch Saddam, the rest of you have no chance. Give up the fight."
UTo the Bush administration, "Finally locating Saddam should provide the psychological boost that this campaign has needed. But use that accomplishment constructively to terminate international acrimony over Iraq. It would make no sense, for example, if this feat inspired an exaggerated strut and deluded you into believing that you are more in charge than people imagined. In particular, it would be shortsighted to continue restricting key allies in Europe and elsewhere from involvement in Iraq's stabilization and reconstruction. Extend a welcoming hand."
UTo France, Germany and other nations that opposed the war, "Thank you for your quick applause in response to Saddam's capture. However, the moment is opportune to offer more than words. You have not even begun to muster the kinds of constructive assistance that you might provide. Even as you seek to compromise with the United States in handling post-Saddam Iraq, demonstrate that you recognize that the dangers loom much larger than your diplomatic differences. Work with your neighbors, ideally in NATO, to cobble together a force that would hasten Iraq's departure from instability. In short, get on board."
UTo Al-Qaida and your supporters, "The differences of opinion that spawned global divisiveness over the war -- Saddam's last laugh -- will pass. Saddam's key supporters will follow him into custody and eventual obscurity. Yes, you retain the ability to inflict injury and damage. But the coalition shortly will train more of its weapons on you. Perhaps that appeals to your sense of danger, importance and purpose. Hold your enthusiasm, though. Your unholy congregation in Iraq has created a terrorist threat that the United States and its allies recognize, understand and will counter. If anything, your presence should redouble the coalition's resolve. Saddam's neutralization foreshadows your own."
XJohn C. Bersia, who won a Pulitzer Prize in editorial writing for the Orlando Sentinel in 2000, is also the special assistant to the president for global perspectives and a professor at the University of Central Florida. Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune Information Services.