Eye on Mr. Chavez

Washington Post: There was a remarkable democratic exercise two weeks ago in Venezuela, a South American country of 24 million, a major oil producer and the foremost of a number of troubled Latin American states that the Bush administration has badly neglected. Determined to oust their populist and quasi-authoritarian president, Hugo Chavez, before he can do any more damage to the country, more than 3.5 million people signed a petition, in just four days, calling for a recall referendum. This astounding turnout by some 30 percent of the electorate occurred peacefully. Observers from the Carter Center and the Organization of American States said they saw no evidence of irregularities. A commission will now validate the signatures; unless it throws out more than 1 million of them, Venezuela will have the chance to peacefully resolve a political conflict that has threatened to tear it apart.
Self-styled revolutionary
The main obstacle, predictably, is Mr. Chavez, a self-styled revolutionary who over the past five years has triggered an implosion of the Venezuelan economy, trampled on the private business sector and the independent media, and alienated nearly all his neighbors save Fidel Castro. Mr. Chavez appears likely to lose his job if a referendum is held, and consequently is doing everything he can to stop one. He accused the petition-gatherers of "megafraud," though he produced no evidence; he summoned thousands of his supporters to a demonstration and vowed that no vote would take place; he sent his thugs to attack anti-government protesters in a plaza where the opposition was headquartered. Opposition media report that thousands of Cubans have entered the country in recent months and are busy organizing the president's strongholds. No one doubts that Mr. Chavez is capable of violence. His first political act, after all, was a failed coup, and last year he triggered an ultimately unsuccessful coup against himself by ordering police and the military to attack opposition demonstrations.
Mr. Chavez will allow a referendum and respect its results only if he is convinced that fraud or violence won't work for him.