Teams' up-and-down trend may end

The league appears to be stabilizing as talent spreads.
By DAVE GOLDBERG
ASSOCIATED PRESS
Since 1999, one sure development in the NFL has been a dramatic move from bottom to top and top to bottom. Last season, the Falcons and Browns were up, the Bears and Rams down.
In 2003, the trend might end, simply because there were few teams bad enough in 2002 to make a shocking upward move. Twenty-four of the 32 were 7-9 or better and the eight that weren't don't seem equipped to win now -- not even Dallas or Detroit, where new coaches Bill Parcells and Steve Mariucci are proven winners.
Since the Pittsburgh Steelers' run of four titles in six years ended with a Super Bowl victory after the 1979 season, only three teams have won back-to-back titles: San Francisco in 1988-89; Dallas in 1992-93; and Denver in 1997-98, John Elway's last two seasons.
Salary-cap parity
The primary reason? Salary-cap engendered parity that ensures that only teams with weak or meddling owners have no chance -- Arizona, Cincinnati, and, more recently, Dallas and Washington.
In the past five years, nine different teams have made the Super Bowl. The Rams were the only repeaters, winning the title after the '99 season and losing in 2001 to New England. Despite a 7-9 season last year, they're one of the favorites again with two-time MVP Kurt Warner recovered from his injuries.
"I don't see any reason why we won't get right back to where we belong," coach Mike Martz says. "Kurt's healthy and I think we've readjusted the offensive line to make sure he stays that way."
Still, a lot depends on the injury gods and the bounces in a league that every year approaches the sort of parity late commissioner Pete Rozelle always dreamed of. Last season, a quarter of the 256 regular-season games were decided by three points or fewer, and there were a record 25 overtime games.
Even the teams that have little chance to win are worth watching.
Dallas, 5-11 the last three seasons, is back in the spotlight.
Hired Parcells
First the Cowboys hired the 62-year-old Parcells after owner Jerry Jones finally conceded his way wasn't working. Then they divested themselves of Emmitt Smith, who broke the NFL's career rushing record last season -- he landed in Arizona and will return to Texas Stadium wearing red on Oct. 5, perhaps in a game featuring two winless teams.
Don't look for much from Dallas this season; Parcells hasn't made the playoffs in his first season with a new team. But he won two Super Bowls with the Giants, went to a Super Bowl with the Patriots and an AFC title game with the Jets.
Mariucci with Lions
Mariucci, fired by San Francisco despite four playoff appearances in six seasons there, takes over a Detroit team that was 5-27 in two years under Marty Mornhinweg. He has a young quarterback in Joey Harrington and young wide receiver in Charles Rogers but not much else.
The other new coaches are Marvin Lewis (for Dick LeBeau) in Cincinnati; Jack Del Rio (for Tom Coughlin) in Jacksonville; and Dennis Erickson in San Francisco. Only Erickson, who had a 31-33 record with Seattle from 1995-98 has a real chance to win now after he took over Mariucci's playoff team.
This also marks the final season for Art Modell after 42 years as owner of the Cleveland Browns/Baltimore Ravens. Modell, who bought the Browns in 1961 and moved them to Baltimore after the 1995 season, will turn the team over to Steve Bisciotti, who will become the majority owner.
Lewis, one of the league's top defensive coordinators for the past half-decade, is in an interesting spot.
Third black coach
After intense off-season pressure for more minorities in coaching positions, he becomes the third current black coach -- there never have been more than three at one time.
He also has more control than any Bengals coach other than Paul Brown or Forrest Gregg. He will build around a core of young players that includes quarterback Carson Palmer, the Heisman Trophy winner and first overall pick in the draft, although Jon Kitna will start the season.
For the contenders, a lot depends on the breaks of the game -- literally.
The New York Jets, the defending AFC East champions, lost quarterback Chad Pennington for a good part of the season when he broke and dislocated his left wrist in an exhibition game with the Giants last Saturday. He'll be replaced by 40-year-old Vinny Testaverde, who was 1-3 as a starter early last season.
XComing this week: Division previews and schedules start Monday.
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