TRENDS Flexibility is key for holiday travel deals

The demand for holiday trips remains high.
LOS ANGELES TIMES
If you haven't made your holiday travel plans yet, you may be too late for many destinations.
In a typical year, that wouldn't be news because Thanksgiving, Christmas, Hanukkah and New Year's are among the most in-demand travel times. Warm-weather resorts book up months in advance, plane seats disappear and air fares soar. Savvy travelers plan accordingly.
But, of course, this hasn't been a typical year. The aftermath of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, the bombing in Bali and the uncertain economy have disrupted travel patterns. Fewer people are flying, although air fares have dropped. Travelers are booking hotels and tours at the last minute, we're told.
Except, experts say, when it comes to the holidays.
About 60 percent of Americans are looking forward to holiday travel, with 1 in 4 planning to take more trips this season than last, according to a survey by Flight Plan for America, a project funded by the airlines and travel agent groups. Some luxury resorts in Hawaii are sold out for all the holidays. In Utah, showcased in the 2002 Winter Olympics, bookings at the Canyons ski resort are running about double from this time last year, and Snowbird's reservations are ahead of 2000, the resort's best year, officials say.
Pent-up demand from last year and a renewed emphasis on family travel are contributing to the holiday crush, experts say. Bucking the late-booking trend, many vacationers are reserving months ahead for the holidays, says Jerry Cheske, a spokesman for AAA.
Fewer seats available
Although AAA was still working on its forecasts late last month, Cheske is expecting holiday air travel to be up from last year and car trips to be about the same. With flight cutbacks, "travelers are fighting for fewer seats," Cheske says.
Lowest available round-trip air fares for Thanksgiving were a little higher than last year for Los Angeles-to-Honolulu flights and about the same for Los Angeles-to-New York (JFK) when checked late last month, says Bob Harrell of Harrell Associates in New York, which tracks fares through the database that supplies computerized reservation systems used by travel agents. (The dates checked were Nov. 27 outbound, Dec. 1 return.) Christmastime fares were down a bit from last year on both routes. (The dates were Dec. 21 outbound, Dec. 29 return.)
Higher fares to Honolulu reflect the popularity of tropical spots for the holidays. Plane seats within the U.S. mainland are generally more plentiful than to Hawaii or the Caribbean, says Michael Hannan, owner of San Marin Travel in Novato, Calif. Sometimes "what we find is that the resort is available -- it's the air that's the problem," he adds.
Improving your chances
Here are some strategies the experts suggest for last-minute holiday travelers:
U Stay flexible on dates: Christmas and New Year's Day both fall on Wednesdays, so travel is expected to extend to weekends before and after the holidays. If you avoid peak travel dates, such as Dec. 19 to 23 and Jan. 2, for instance, you're more apt to snag a reasonable fare.
When booking cruises and hotels, consider Thanksgiving or Christmas rather than New Year's because New Year's trips tend to be more popular -- and expensive.
The ultimate strategy is to avoid holiday travel entirely and instead go right before or right after, when prices are lower.
U Be cool; think urban: You don't have to go to the tropics or a ski resort to have a good time. And they're not the places to look for holiday bargains.
Why not celebrate Christmas in cities that sport a signature seasonal decoration: snow?
This could be a good year to go to East Coast or Midwest cities. Business travel, which has been slow for more than a year, reaches its nadir at the holidays; who wants to hold a conference on Christmas or Hanukkah? The result: empty hotel rooms, a few vacant plane seats and some discounts.
On a recent Internet search on Four Seasons and Marriott hotel sites, the Four Seasons Hualalai on the Big Island and Marriott's Maui Ocean Club were booked up for several holiday dates. But top hotels in Chicago and New York had vacancies. And some had deals.
Look also for deals to Northern Europe, experts suggest. For example, Carlson Wagonlit Travel, a network of more than 1,000 travel agencies, recently offered an eight-day tour of Christmas markets in Germany and Austria from $549 per person, plus air fare. (This deal may no longer be available.)
U Consider a cruise: If you want to get away from it all but don't want to fly overseas, a holiday cruise could be just the ticket. After Sept. 11, 2001, more lines relocated ships to U.S. mainland ports for embarkation, and there are still some good cruise fares.
U Enlist a travel agent: Last-minute spaces on cruises and tours can pop up because of cancellations and other factors, but they tend to be fleeting, Hannan says. Travel agents can help you act quickly because they get daily updates from travel suppliers. Internet travel sellers may require more work on your part, but they can be good sources for eleventh-hour discounts.